Garden of Economics and Politics

哥本哈根，蜗居與起跑綫

2009-12-20T16:56:00.000+08:00

考完試，歇了口氣，心中突然像掏空了一樣，没有了什麼動力。三週來的忙碌，如坐過山車般的緊張與鬆弛，也暫時告一段落。寒流來了，衣服穿多了些，卻禁不住一個寒顫，天冷了。幾件事縈繞在心中，不時糾纏，卻又不時化開，使人眼神中不由得流露出了一絲凝重。
哥本哈根只是一個傳說，曾有媒體這樣報道。領袖們的走秀，無意義的爭吵。而將資助與監督挂鈎的提意本身并不是一件壞事，但是問題在於在缺少信任、缺少公平、缺少互助的前提下，這一提意不過是一種搪塞與妄想。這三尺冰涷岂是一日之寒？這紛攘喧囂又如此似曾相識。凡尔賽的遺憾，羅馬規約的局限，京都議定書的笑話，國際政治就是如此不合常理，而各國政客卻又如此心安理得。哥本哈根的結局是如此讓人失望。小島國、最脆弱國家、非洲聯盟是如此的無助，站在大國的影子背後，沮喪地任人擺佈，因為從一開始他們就不在一個重量級上。哥本哈根也會使某些人失去他們的光環。人們應該變得理知，不將期望寄予那些＂領袖＂，因為他們確實也只是普通人，生活在他們所成長的＂領袖＂的圈子中。即便是所謂全民選舉，那也只是一場勢不鈞、力不敵的摶奕，因為大多數人一開始就輸在了起跑綫上。
昨天才開始看《蜗居》，看得直拍大腿。從上海來，在香港生活，其實和故事中的人物有什麼本質區別？住過老房子，進過小弄堂，從小節省，艱苦朴素。這一切的一切是那麼熟悉。要真回想起，九十年代初的家庭收入也才百來块錢。拔牙時就用綿綫綁著拽。什麼塑料、陶瓷東西壞了，就用百得胶粘了再用。水喉旁邊永遠是一块固本肥皂。水喉滴水的時候還去勞防用品店買墊圈，自己回來修。第一次看到自控水喉竟是在高中去日本交流之時，還感叹過這玩意可以保證讓人不用擔心浪費水資源！那些發逹國家的人恐怕是萬萬想不到的。這也就是起跑綫了。
可是這已是上海了呀。
外地人往上海跑，想安家，想落戶。因為那是一座大城市，有這個，有那個，可是就是没有他們的家。一輩子就為一套房子、一個孩子，没日没夜地拼摶。可有人可怜他們？
想發發善心吧，可是我們也只是蜗居在另一座城市中的一群人。渺小到不能再渺小。一無所有就是我們最大的財富。因為一無所有，不怕失去，所以肯幹、願幹。那就幹吧。不要想太多。
朋友說我總是想太多了，勸我凡事不要去想。這倒也不假。想過了，看明白了，就不要去想了。人最後是要幹活的，這起跑綫上的事已經過去了，還去想幹什麼。再說再過兩年就要考慮下一代的起跑綫了吧。這故事也就又有了個新的開始、新的篇章。
從起跑綫，到蜗居，再到哥本哈根，原本只是不搭界的三個概念，但是本質是相通的。這只因為人類就是如此渺小，渺小到無法逃脫自己的命運──這才有了海萍的那句豪言壯語：＂我的未來一定比他們牛！＂

寫在四川探訪之後

2009-07-20T21:11:00.000+08:00

從去年四川地震之後，先是在網上認識了一些災區的高考生，接著幫手翻譯漢旺地震遺址公園的遠景規劃，腦海中總是揮不去地震後房屋傾覆、生靈涂炭的情景。失去家園、親人之痛，依我心中揣度，也必撕心裂肺、萬念俱灰。對災民的同情、感慨之意連同對四川重建的懮慮交織在一起，久久不能釋懷，便隨同點滴成川訪問團入川探訪。
七月三日起的六日五夜，我們一行十多人穿梭於成都金堂、什邡與彭州之間，從地震波及地區走訪到地震重災區，探訪對象既有普通四川百姓又有外地來的農家樂老闆。災區的形象漸漸清晰起來，災民日常生活的點點滴滴也開始具體起來──災難帶來的固然有毀滅，但只要災難不能盡毀一切生命，春天到來的時候，綠色總能再返人間。
在什邡什化公司遺址探訪時，眼前的景象是如此慘烈──塌方的廠房、裸露而锈跡斑斑的钢筋、扭曲傾斜的高壓電塔，一間曾經拥有幾千員工、資產上亿的化工廠，在地震中傾刻間化為廢墟。在當地修建遺址公園的工人告訴我，從廠區挖出來的遇難者就埋在不遠的生活區，只淺淺地用泥沙覆盖。一座諾大的工廠，如今空空蕩蕩，了無生機，棄用的鐡路伸向無盡的遠方。
然而走出廠區，滿目瘡痍之間卻透露出點點生機。廠區門外已有幾個攤位，一群白鵝在附近悠閒地踱步。一位老婆婆來廠區散步，告訴我們兒子外出打工，自己靠之前政府的補助和兒子寄來的錢，日子也算過得踏實，每天閒暇都會來廠區散步。在不遠處的小賣部，老闆說自從地震半年後政府補助結束以來，就靠從鄰近的集市進些水、烟來販賣，自力更生。從什邡回金堂，沿途經過一些鎮子，集市就在損毀的舊商鋪門前，人來人往，已甚是熱鬧。在人們的臉上看不到惊慌，除了損毀的房屋與開裂的道路還提示著人們一年前的災難，一切看上去已漸漸成為平靜的生活常態。
進入彭州銀廠溝，有更多時間步行或逗留於當地，感受更深一些。這裡與倍受關注的汶川、映秀不同，雖然人員傷亡没有那麼嚴重，但當地靠山吃山發展旅遊業的經濟模式，百姓傾囊修建的農家樂在地震中毀於一旦，所有積蓄化為烏有。在大龍潭、小龍潭景區，有位婆婆住在自家搭的木屋裡，靠向路人賣自己挖的野菜為生。一位耳有些背的老伯伯則告訴我，他靠收費廁所，每次五角，每月能賺一百多元，足以維生。事實上，當地百姓短期內大多無力再大規模興建農家樂，只能靠向路人兜售雜貨或外出打工維生，但他們卻對未來充滿信心。
在九峰村，一戶農家已着手建一個只有兩、三間客房的小農家樂。男主人顯得很樂觀：這裡風景好，把農家樂先建起來，不怕没人住；等錢攢够了，再擴建。
除了小型農家樂，當地人視針線活為另一個重要的經濟來源。我們在那裡收購四川活力娃娃時，附近的婦女都爭著拿來自己做的布娃娃，短短幾個小時，已收到逾三百個娃娃。很多戶人家靠十字繡暫且幫補家用。有婦女還興沖沖展示她的十字繡作品，指著一幅正在製作的十字繡充滿憧憬地告訴我們這幅需時半年時間完成的作品估價可以賣到三四千元。
在四川的幾日探訪，我看到過因地震而彻底改變的山河地貌，聽到過少年因災難而成熟的例子，很多事物都不可避免地變了；但也看到地震後的災民依然喜歡在午後打個盹，在閒時搓上幾圈麻將，將曾經的痛苦回憶埋在心裡，面對現實，生活依舊。在四川探訪的幾個地區隨處可見玩滑板的孩子們，他們無懮無慮，完全看不出一年前曾經歷過一場災難。這無穷的生命力就如此地傳遞！
在什邡什化公司曾拍下這樣一張照片：在一片死寂的廠區，一幢嚴重損毀的辦公樓前，盛放著一丛橘紅色的美人蕉。無論那牆上的裂紋如何恐怖，那旺盛的生命力已消散人們心中的恐惧，教人勇敢的活下去……

中越戰爭的一些分享

2009-02-18T15:43:00.000+08:00

2009年2月17日是中越戰爭30周年紀念日，大陸人通常習慣“對越自衛反擊戰”的叫法。中越官方都沒有特別的表示，但是那場戰爭卻割不斷很多人的記憶。
記得有一次隨父親與一群當年南京兵聚會時，他們還提到當年的一些南京戰友在參加了那場傷亡慘重的戰役后，決定永遠留在廣西，守候逝去的年輕生命，不再囘南京。由於許世友將軍的固執己見，沒有空軍掩護，強佔高地的死命令讓這場戰爭從一開始就帶上了悲壯的色彩。進入越南境内以后，巷戰的殘酷更是可以達到把人逼瘋的程度。冷槍隨時可能從背後射來，生命隨時可能就此終止。這就是一群軍人對於那場戰爭的記憶，也是我對於中越戰爭了解的開始。
戰爭的直接參與者不僅是軍人，也是百姓。很多同齡人或許會覺得中越兩國關係很好，但是經歷過戰爭的百姓是不會輕易抹去痛苦的記憶，他們的子孫充滿仇恨的環境中也不可能毫無影響。撫平創傷需要時間，對中國人是這樣，對越南人也是這樣。中越戰爭后，兩國關係的復蘇是從1991年開始的，而雙方的陸上地界勘探是去年才完成的。這種關係的復蘇是國際形勢、國内政治、經濟共同作用下促成的。蘇聯的解體令越南的政體需要尋找新的模式進行運作。而唯一可以選擇的模版只有中國。
鳳凰何亮亮的一篇博客分享了關於中越戰爭的一本新作《1979對越戰爭親歷記》的大概内容，覺得寫得挺好的，下面摘錄部分，並附錄其原文網址，以供詳細閲讀。

1979年2月17日至3月5日，中国发动了对越战争。中国军队出动了陆军50军、54军、20军、41军、42军、43军、11军、13军和14军的22个师以及20军20军第58师、广西军区独立师、云南省军区独立师、广西军区2个边防团、云南省军区5个边防团）、2个炮兵师（炮1师、炮4师）、两个高炮师（高炮65师、高炮70师），以及铁道兵、工程兵、通信兵等兵种部队近56万兵力的解放军部队在广西、云南的中越边境500公里长的边境线攻入越南，3月4日中国军队占领谅山省会谅山，此为防守河内的要地，陷谅山则可南下直取河内。3月5日中国宣布停火并全线撤军。
本书附录的《1979年对越自卫反击战大事记》中透露，1978年12月7日的中央军委扩大会议即以决定发动对越战争并随即开始全面备战，广州军区司令许世友被任命为广西前线总指挥，但有关这次军委会议的内容至今未解密。
值得注意的是，邓小平在1978年底开始访问美国，根据美国媒体的报导。他在访问中先后向白宫和国会领导人通报了中国将“教训”越南；1979年2月初邓小平访问日本，也向日方高层作了同样的通报
……
作者用了一章专门记叙对手越南军队，在第26章《不可低估越南对手，他们也不是白吃饭的》中，作者对于越军的长处有客观的详尽的描述。当然也不能忘记，越军的许多军官都是在中国接受军事教育，越南的军备与其他工业设备多为中国无偿支持。“兄弟阋于墙”，战争的惨烈绝对不输于长期敌对的两国之间。越南与中国是同样的政治体制，因此中国军队进攻越南，越南是全民抗战，军民一体，使中国军队吃亏不少，也是中国军队开战不久就放弃了愚蠢的亲民纪律。中国军队的轻敌也造成自己的重创，在北京宣布停火后第二天进入越南的50军150师两个营的部队被就越军包围，被俘二百余人，可视为中国军队的奇耻大辱，因为此前中国军队俘越军数千人，未料战争结束反而有两个营全军覆没。
……

網址：http://blog.ifeng.com/article/2203869.html

The Message from Economics to Politics: the Discussion on the New Economic Era from World Economic Forum 2009

2009-01-29T02:01:00.001+08:00

This year's World Economic Forum attracts more attention as people are expecting the world's most influential political and business leaders will convey some important messages to the pale global economy. The WEF can take this responsibility since its spirit seems to lie in bringing people opportunities to communicate and listen to different opinions. The discussion session of the New Economic Era today pointed out key channels to deliver such a message.

The discussion was started from the perspective of economics. Panel experts talked about the important drive of world economy in the following several years and the possible methods of dealing with the severe financial crisis. Discussions were sparkled on the role and importance of fiscal policies in saving the national economy and as extend the global economy. In spite of the certain recognition of the fiscal policies, Heizo Takenaka, the Japanese economist, laid more emphasis on monetary policies; and some follow-up opinions by audience questioned the effectiveness of fiscal policies in the closed global economy viewed as a whole. The GDP growth rate can be sustained due to the fiscal stimulus but there may not be corresponding balance in the real economy. What's more, the fiscal policies adopted by one country or a few are certainly not helping too much. Yifu Lin urged the coordinated approach to deal with the crisis under which structure the developed countries should take up the responsibility to transfer some funds to the developing countries to help the development of the latter’s economy. This opinion displayed the picture of a multilateral plan which was not successful during the past experiences due to the unwillingness from countries to bear the responsibility. The IMF is not considered to be successful in conducting the multilateral support to world economy in the past. How about G20 which gathered the leaders from the most important nations in the world? People's view began to shift from a pure economic perspective to a political one. As many people might already realize, the message that could be delivered is not a pure economic one but with strong participation from the political world as a reconfirm of the repeated theme of history. However, to search for the path for multilateral cooperation means a greater involvement in the globalization, a trend that becomes more and more important and invertible whether people like it or not.

The WEF 2009 starts today and will continue to discuss a wide range of topics including global climate changes and regional relations. People expect the forum to give the world hope for dealing with the financial crisis. Obviously, the message that WEF can convey at best is to call for the understanding and cooperation between the world political leaders and business elites.

從卡城(Calgary)的兩座華人紀念碑說起

2008-11-16T12:28:00.001+08:00

於陣亡將士紀念日前的周末和友人前往卡城遊玩。在卡城的最後一日，和友人一起沿著河岸欣賞城市中心區的高樓大廈，在唐人街附近的一個街心公園裏發現了兩座華人的紀念碑。這兩座碑是由兩個不同的華人組織樹立的，不過卻帶來了早期華人在加拿大的辛酸歷史。
最早關於加拿大華人的紀錄可以追溯到1788年。19世紀，早期的華人被運送到加拿大做廉價勞力修建加拿大鐵路，開礦或擔負其他低下的工作。由於工作環境惡劣，且遭到白人歧視，不少人死于飢餓、勞累、工傷、謀殺。加拿大鐵路完工，數以千計的中國勞工被辭退，大量中國廉價勞工充斥加拿大，被指責擾亂勞動力市場秩序。由於早期移民主要是廣東一帶的底層百姓，生活所迫，爲了讓家人有生存的機會，越來越多的華人開始移民加拿大，做廉價勞工。1885年，加拿大政府開始向華人移民徵收人頭稅(headtax)，這是加拿大境内唯一一個被徵收該稅項的少數族裔。這一稅項，從一開始的50加幣，一直升到了500加幣。該稅項不僅向新移民徵收，還要追溯已經定居加拿大的所有華裔。1923年，加拿大政府更是設立了《華人移民法案》(Chinese Exclusion Act)，徹底禁止華人移民。當時的唐人街，可以被形容為單身社區，因爲這些青壯勞動力隻身前來加拿大，而一家老小依然留在中國。禁止移民，徹底把很多華人生生分隔兩地。
在很多華人眼中，二戰是一個非常重要的轉折點。雖然當時華人社區被隔絕，華人被剝奪很多權利，但是華人社區中的不少年輕人堅信，只要爲了加拿大而參戰，昭顯華人社區對於加拿大的貢獻就可以使得所有華人移民獲得合法權益。400多名華裔報名從軍，被派往緬甸和印度尼西亞的敵人後方的叢林執行任務。華人血統，一度在加拿大國内成爲華裔的包袱，在這一刻成爲了華人的資產。他們可以更好地和當地人相處，完成任務。可是戰爭結束了，華人血統，又成為了包袱。
由於簽訂了《聯合國世界人權宣言》，1947年加拿大被迫取消《華人移民法案》。同年，華裔被准許在聯邦選舉投票。但是直到20年后，華人才被同意以“獨立身份”移民加拿大，並在選舉中採用同樣的標準。而政府向華人道歉是一直到2006年現任總理哈珀上臺以後了。
華人在今日的加拿大已基本過上了平等的生活，而据統計，25%的華人更是出生在加拿大的華裔。對於這個群體，很多人也許並不會對於移民有什麽深刻的體會，也未必對於先民的移民史太感興趣。而今天來加拿大的移民恐怕更不會對那段往事有什麽閒工夫去追溯，畢竟似乎那段往事的主要對象是廣東一帶的華人，語言也是以粵語為母語——而今天的移民大多是來自于中國大陸，他們只說普通話，聼不懂粵語，在華人社區裏即使居住地理位置同操粵語的華人並不遙遠，但從兩個社群的交流來看，是明顯不足的，甚至可能是有溝壑的。
如今的移民情況與以前已大大不同，如今的移民者恐怕也不再會有激情和機遇去為他們的“國家”而戰。但是在今天，不再為餐飯和危機擔憂的今天，國家對於他們究竟意味著什麽？他們又會為他們曾經稱爲祖國的地方和現在身份證上註明國籍的地方做出一些什麽樣的事跡呢？也許只有時間才知道。

關於早期加拿大華人的紀錄片可以參看：http://archives.cbc.ca/society/immigration/topics/1433/

陣亡將士紀念日當日所感（11月11日）

2008-11-16T10:36:00.002+08:00

在國内年輕男女們歡慶他們的“光棍節”的時候，西方世界的很多國家正在為他們死去的先輩默哀。
因爲沒有任何信息渠道，我沒有能夠出席在Edmonton當地的陣亡將士紀念日的紀念活動，不過十一點前，我準時打開了收音機，收聽廣播電臺直播的在加拿大首都渥太華舉行的加拿大陣亡將士紀念活動。今年的儀式還特別請加拿大唯一在世的經歷過一戰的106嵗老兵John Babcock傳遞火炬並寄語紀念儀式。廣播背景中可以聽到隆隆的禮炮間隔性的轟鳴聲。
下午看了許多CBC關於全國各地陣亡將士紀念活動的報導。最完整的影音資料來自溫哥華。在那裏的唐人街，很多華裔老兵出席了紀念活動。不少年輕的華裔也前來悼念陣亡將士。CBC有一個影像文件是介紹二戰老兵Frank Wong的從軍經歷。他提到作爲華裔加拿大人，在早期沒有合法的公民地位，被人看不起。他是因爲希望為自己的國家做一些實實在在的貢獻來換取華人在加拿大的真正認可而積極報名從軍的。戰後一年多，他們全家獲得正式加拿大公民身份。在此次紀念活動的採訪中，在溫哥華採訪的記者曾經試圖提及本國在早期對於華人社區的歧視，不過話題剛開了一個頭，電視信號中斷，這一部分節目沒有能夠繼續完成。
整個紀念日確實是給予人們很多的反思與懷念。正如CBC在報導中指出的，紀念日不僅是老兵對於他們已故戰友和遠去的戰爭經歷的回憶，也是當代人對於先烈們創造今日和平世界的事跡以及現在正在為永遠結束所有戰爭而奮鬥的軍人們表示敬意的時刻。
在加拿大，很多人都會非常關注陣亡將士紀念日，甚至提前一個多星期胸口佩戴捐助老兵基金獲得的仿製罌粟花以紀念慘烈的一戰、二戰和其他很多重要的戰爭。而在Edmonton，公交車的報站顯示牌也於一周前打出“以免我們忘記 (Lest we forget)”的標語（該標語是紀念日的常用標語之一）。不過在中國，似乎現在很少有人如此長期地、自發地、真誠地而又懷有敬意地去回想我們的歷史。“以史為鋻”是中國人最常說的，卻未必是最常做的。

Today is Remembrance Day 2008, the 90th anniversary of the end of WWI. Around Canada and world, celebrations are held in memory of the end of the ridiculous war and the lives of thousands of innocent people died during the war.
I didn’t attend the ceremony held in Edmonton as a lack of information. However, at around 11 o’clock, I listened to the radio for the remembrance service held in Ottawa and watched TV programmes from CBC on ceremonies held around Canada.
The programme of the service in the British Columbia is the most complete version. I can see a lot of Chinese descendants there servicing Canada’s army. Frank Wong, the son of a shop keeper and a veteran of the WWII, told the reporter about his experience to win the respect and the equal rights of Canadian Chinese citizen by serving the army.
In Ottawa, the only surviving veteran John Babcock who was in uniform during the WWI passed the torch of remembrance to a veteran of WWII, a torch then passed to a veteran of Korean War, a peacekeeper who served in the Middle East and a soldier who fought in Afghanistan.
Every year, it’s time for the veterans and soldiers to bring memories of their late comrades and friends in the war. It is also time for people living in the new era to remember the heroes and heroines who brought the peace and who are devoted to end all war forever.
I didn’t attend the ceremonies in person, but I get the information that is conveyed by the remembrance service.
Lest we forget.

陣亡將士紀念日(Remembrance Day)及罌粟花(Poppy flower)

2008-11-07T14:23:00.000+08:00

從星期天開始，看見街頭有人在胸前戴紅花。這兩天上課的時候，發現不少同學都佩戴紅花，不禁非常好奇。同學告訴我那是紀念陣亡將士紀念日的。星期二夜晚看美國大選節目的時候，BBC演播室裏的人也個個都佩戴了紅花，便簡單了解了一下陣亡將士紀念日。
陣亡將士紀念日是英聯邦國家紀念在第一次世界大戰陣亡將士的節日，訂立於每年11月11日。在世界其他一些國家也有類似的紀念日，如美國的退伍軍人日(Veteran Day)，法國的停戰日(Armistice Day)等。而在南非和馬耳他則使用罌粟花日(Poppy Day)的稱謂。
佩戴在人們胸前的紅花就是罌粟花。將陣亡將士紀念日和罌粟花聯係在一起源于加拿大軍醫John McCrae的一首詩《在法蘭德斯戰場》(In Flanders Fields)。法蘭德斯，這個一戰中戰況最慘烈的戰場之一，盛開罌粟花。紅色的罌粟花象徵著陣亡戰士的鮮血。

附：《在法蘭德斯戰場》
In Flanders Fields

In Flanders fields the poppies blow
Between the crosses, row on row,
That mark our place; and in the sky
The larks, still bravely singing, fly
Scarce heard amid the guns below.

We are the dead. Short days ago
We lived, felt dawn, saw sunset glow,
Loved, and were loved, and now we lie
In Flanders fields.

Take up our quarrel with the foe:
To you from failing hands we throw
The torch; be yours to hold it high.
If ye break faith with us who die
We shall not sleep, though poppies grow
In Flanders fields.

— Lt.-Col. John McCrae

A Brief Review on the Current Financial Crisis (I)

2008-10-17T10:53:00.000+08:00

Many people like to compare the current financial crisis and the Great Depression in 1930s. However, what we are facing is a much different version from many aspects. In this severe crisis, what is definitely of great value is our deeper understanding on our past wrong conceptions.
A brief review on the current crisis can be traced to the Greenspan’s age. After the fast development in the 1990s, financial institutions began to pursue higher profits by bearing higher risks. The risky desire located itself on the strategy to encourage people with imperfect credit history to purchase houses by taking mortgages with higher interests. As years of practice, with the help of the securitization, financial institutions discovered that it seemed quite safe to securitize those mortgages into Mortgages Backed Securities (MBS). Through this practice, financial institutions could get sufficient funds from MBS to support their loans towards the mortgage takers while using the cash flow from the interests of the mortgages to pay back the return for the MBS. However, the obvious mismatch between the asset and liability didn’t raise enough attention. The mortgages are long-term investment for financial institutions, while the MBS are usually short-term. If default rate of the mortgages becomes very high, financial institutions won’t be able to pay back the returns and principals of the MBS investors. Nonetheless, the seemingly prosperous world economy didn’t allow the elite to give the potential risk a second thought. This was even blessed by the deregulation of the financial sector under the reign of Alan Greenspan.
The up-and-down cycle finally turned to its dark side. When the house owners discovered that they were not able to clear the mortgages they had taken and more and more defaults occurred, the nightmare started. The drying up of the cash flow made the payment for the MBS difficult. What’s more, the financial institutions discovered that they had made another mistake, issuing credit default swaps. The credit default swaps are designed to insure the case when the third party’s (mortgage takers) default. For those MBS investors, buying credit default swaps may be a good idea in case that the mortgage takers defaulted. For financial institutions, they might take the long position of the swaps as a kind of insurance as well. Nonetheless, betting on the positive economic development and pursuing a higher profit, they took the short position; i.e. they are going to pay the investors if those mortgage takers default. Now stories became complex. The sudden turn of the housing market led doubled losses. Financial institutions had to pay the investors not only for the MBS but also for the swaps out of limited income streams. That was the end of the pride of those elite. They began to face the real trouble.
When the trouble spread from the housing market to the financial market, it could not be controlled easily any more. The financial markets nowadays are so interdependent that any fault in the chain may cause the dysfunction of the whole. Obviously the securitization was overused in the financial industry worldwide and the problem starting from the housing issue of the US became a global concern. Stock markets became so trembling that the confidence in the market was lost. This was the time for the test of hypothesis of “perfect arbitrage”. The perfect arbitrage is believed to be the base of modern financial markets, a hypothesis different pricing methods of financial instruments established. One example can show the profound influence of this hypothesis; Robert Merton, the 1997 Nobel Prize laureate, was awarded for his paper on “option pricing” which is deeply based on the perfect arbitrage assumption. According to the perfect arbitrage assumption, whenever the asset price seriously deviated from the true price, the arbitrageurs will fully take advantage of the opportunities to gain the arbitrage profit and correct the mispricing resulting from their arbitrage behavior. If it was true under no conditions, we would not see the Asian Financial Crisis in 1998 and would not see the messy financial markets today. In The Limits of Arbitrage, Andrei Shleifer pointed out the weakness of the perfect arbitrage assumption. The long-term capital management was the case to prove this point. When the market is full of panic atmosphere, arbitrage may not happen leaving the free fall of the asset price. That is what we are talking now; when everyone loses confidence in the market, who dares to put money into the market again?

The Unframed Financial Market

2008-09-18T12:48:00.000+08:00

The Wall Street in the past one week became the only focus of the world. The de facto nationalization of the Freddie Mac, Fannie Mae and AIG, the failure of Lehman Brothers, and the buy-up of Merrill Lynch are so dramatic that the global financial sectors become confused about the future of the development.
The US government adopted different measures case by case, an action failing all kinds of predictions and displaying no explicit criteria. However, what Ben Bernanke and Hank Paulson are thinking is not how to follow the rules that have ever been laid down, but how to find the best solution to keep the US future advantage and position in the global financial arena, thus supporting the US role as the only hegemon in the world. The US never needs rules to limit its behavior.
Due to this unframed global structure, people can always cheer for the great creativity that the big brother exerts when facing the difficulties as long as there are sufficient financial and human resources support. However, few people really have the interest in pointing out the dangerous when the big brother is walking towards the precipice after lingering in the safety area for quite a long time.
The financial crisis has not reached its bottom. There is no much prediction on what the future would be. However, one thing is for sure that many graduates this year will have a hard time.

A Lonely Journey with Friends

2008-09-06T07:41:00.001+08:00

This is a lonely journey of me and my shadow. This is also a wonderful journey with all my friends who invited me to our shared experience.

The Lonely Journey
When the flight finally arrived at Ankara International Airport, I found myself lost in an alien country where most people do not speak the languages I use. When I strove to get to the dormitory and slept for hours to recover from the jet leg, I was surprised to find that the sun was still in the sky at 19:30 and the menu in the campus restaurant was written in something that by no means could I understand. Fortunately, this was not totally unfamiliar to me. Four years ago, English and Chinese characters could be some kind of supplements for me to communicate with Japanese people in Fukouka. Two years ago, Mandarin and English could help me to survive in Hong Kong though I wasn’t able to speak Cantonese at that time. But this time, it is tougher.
As a very special country connects Asia and Europe, Turkey always presents a mysterious culture to me, from the huge Muslim community to the mysterious Huns descendants, from the historically great Constantinople to the current splendid Istanbul.
To explore this wonderful country, I set off my journey since the second day of my arrival. It was a lonely journey of me and my shadow. In the following a month and a half, I used all my free time to travel, from Ankara to Antalya, from Cappadocia to Izmir, and from Pamukkale to Istanbul. This journey was not merely a sight-seeing tour. It was my adventure of the culture, history, nature and people.
I seldom travel with agencies. Usually such journey can be more flexible and amazing. When I arrived in Izmir in the early morning, the quiet Aegean Sea patted this historical city gently. Some people were fishing near the Republic Square after the celebration of Turkish soccer victory against Croatia in the EURO 2008 the previous night. A middle-aged man even slept on the bench, covered with the national flag. As the sun rose, the city woke up. In one of the most traditional Bazzar in the country, people were bargaining for anything attracted them. A variety of stores gathered in this region with several blocks long and wide. Compared with the ancient Agora (old bazzar) hundreds of years ago two streets away, the history similarizes itself. When ancestors invented the markets for goods exchange and expanded them to a large scale, they never expected that their descendants centuries later would lived in the same way as they did, though many of the goods exchanged were quite different. Standing on the wall of the castle Kadifekale established by the Alexander the Great and overlooking the Aegean Sea and the whole city of Izmir, I could feel the proud of the great emperor, conqueror, and adventurer.
People, the market and the castle displayed different angles of the city. Tour is just the appearance of the travelling, and the essence is the desire for adventure which in turn presents you a complex world.
During my adventure in Turkey, I’ve met people of different nationality, and with different stories. One of my Poland friends shouted angrily towards a waiter who tried to sell the drinks to him using Russian in Antalya where 99% of the tourists are from Russia. “Here, no one speaks Russian.” This was the natural response from the hearts of many Poles in the contemporary world. It is also not surprising when I met a family from Palestine who complained to me that Israel’s ruling over Palestine was terrible and sadly recalled the lost of their house just one month after the marriage of the grandmother. “Many Palestinians still keep their keys to their old house… My furniture was still in the original order as it was for my marriage sixty years ago when Israel host allowed me to pay a visit in 2005.” The 80-year-old Palestinian grandmother recalled the experience full of sadness. It is even quite understandable when a Kuwaiti was scared to travel in Iraq and two Iraqi engineers were complaining the military occupation of the United States.
My adventure in Turkey brought me not only the idea of what Turkey is but also the movie sections of what the world is. The adventure does not provide me with the exact answer toward the questions around the world. However, it presents me all the possibilities and arouses my interest in exploring more and try to understand a problem through more angles.

The Journey with Friends
Emre was the first colleague I knew since I entered the TOBB. He was an intern in TOBB and we shared the table. We both had a lot of work to do. He was quite experienced in conference reception and Turkish news summaries, and I was working on the English document summaries, album illustration edition and some paper work. Whenever we had some time in the afternoon, we talked a lot from politics to religion, from customs to anecdotes. The second day we met, he invited me to his flat where several other students in his university shared the rooms. It is not common for Chinese people to invite unfamiliar people home. However, it is a normal practice in Turkey as I gradually discovered in the following one month and a half.
The visit to Emre’s home proved to be just a start for me to visit them and live with them. We five boys had a good balance point in discussing political and social issues and the EURO 2008 as well. During my stay in Turkey, the political challenges against AKP, the ruling party, the arrest of several military generals and the president of ATO and the EURO 2008 were the most important and heated-discussed issues in Turkey. I was fortunate to have Turkish friends with me to know more about the local views on these issues. Especially for my one-week intern in ATO later, just one week after the arrest of the president, I lived with Emre and his friends who gave me support to understand the structure and nature of ATO and help me to relieve my anxiety when my boss gave me a seemingly challenging business order.
At the end of June, I was invited to Eskişehir, the hometown of Emre to attend a wedding ceremony of his relative. This is my first time to meet such a huge relative network. In the wedding party, the whole hall with more than 100 desks were full of guests. Relatives come from this table to that table to greet each other. When I asked how could the bridegroom and bride afford such wedding, I was surprised to know that most of the relatives would present some small gold coins or bracelets as gift. The newly married couple would sell some of those gifts to finance the wedding.
In the following two days I spent with Emre’s family, I had good chances to see the daily life of a typical Turkish family. For the family breadfast, the whole family were laughing at my “strange idea” of the “balcony of belly” since Turkish people have got used to the bulky abdomen. I was also delighted to know that I looks alike the grandfather of Emre’s aunt, a descendent of Tartar. Before I left Eskişehir, I purchased some dessert for Emre’s parents, they were so delighted that his father repeatedly use his broken English to express his appreciation, “you not forget here.” Finally, I became their Chinese son, younger brother of Emre and elder brother of Murat.
During my stay in Turkey, so many people had wonderful days and nights with me. I will never forget the owner of a small restaurant Güneydoğu who had made two delicious dinners for me and told me that I was the first one in his life to communicate with him as a guest. I will also keep contact with the 16-year-old clever Russian boy who wanted to know different culture and business behavior by travelling around the world for future business and claimed to hire me if I would become a famous economist. I will remember in my life the wonderful pictures I’ve taken with a group of young Turkish soldiers in Pamukkale. When they said that they loved China, their eyes sparkled light.

My journey in Turkey is a special one. I adventured in this wonderful country with my shadow and my friends.

土耳其之旅（六）

2008-09-06T07:39:00.000+08:00

2008年7月4日-7月5日
又到了星期五，又開始了周末假期，也就又有了很多旅行故事。這一次的故事的人物很多，國籍也各個不同，經歷的故事、想法也很不同。但是他們都帶給了很多美好的回憶。
故事的有一個緊張的開篇。這一次去Göreme的長途汽車在淩晨1：30分發車，所以週五晚上就去Emre家休息片刻。12：40從他們家出發前往AŞTİ。他們家離AK Party的總部很近，剛出他們家門，就看到一群警察聚集在AK Party的總部檢查過往車輛，AK Party總部的門口警衛也比較森嚴，讓人不禁想起週二逮捕那一批預謀政變者的事件。走到附近的Amarda廣場，周圍沒有行人，警衛緊張地看了看我，站在那裏一動不動；我繼續走在廣場上，離我20米遠的小太陽突然閃亮，照耀在整個停車場上。離我15米遠的幾輛小巴車的後面，傳來了警察通常配備的對講機的聲音，但是我完全看不見人。一陣寒氣向我襲來。難道他們今晚有動作？這是我第一個反應。我不敢回頭看，深怕一回頭看見漆黑的槍眼。低著頭，趕緊走。漸漸對講機的聲音越來越遠，我終于走出了Amarda廣場，小太陽一下子熄滅了。我這才松了一口氣。
去Göreme的車程並不算太長，只用了不到五個小時就到達了Nevşehir的汽車站。在那兒理應作Minibus前往Göreme，不過卻在車站遇到了被人帶進了我以爲是候車室的地方，告訴我還有二十分鐘小巴才發車。那人很熱情地問我在當地留幾天，又很熱情地問我參觀完Göreme之後的行程打算，畢竟Göreme只是一個小鎮子。很明顯，我走進了一家旅行社。是不是被騙了？要是在平時，我或許會很不耐煩的離開，不管是不是被騙了，是否小巴要等二十分鐘，我都不可能參加旅行團，我要自己走。可是這一次，我還是耐心地聼那人介紹完了旅行社的行程安排，並且很爽快地答應參加兩日的行程，那個決定做得如此堅定、迅速，連我都出乎意料！其實，這也是有原因的，星期一上午9點我必須準時回到辦公室，因爲我已經接到通知，他們會安排車送我去ATO工作一周。而這時的我並沒有賣回程的車票，——因爲怎麽都查不到回來的車的具體時間安排，而手機又由於土耳其政府的奇怪政策而“消失”了，——對於這個周末的安排，沒有一點底。聼完介紹，也很明確，Cappadocia的景觀比較分散，如果單獨旅行，很多是看不到的。不如參加一次旅行團試試吧。
這一試不要緊，卻一下又一鬆手，在旅行團費用之外，又送了旅行社250Lira的清晨熱氣球活動的報名費。天哪！我什麽時候那麽大方！確實，這幾乎要了我兩個星期在TOBB的工資。一個小時的熱氣球活動，真的值那麽多麽？也許吧？！畢竟《Lonely Planet》上也有介紹Cappadocia的熱氣球活動值得一試。而眼前的這位旅行社導遊也似乎並不是那麽喜歡忽悠人的那種。轉念一想，人生有幾次熱氣球旅行呢？不在今朝，更待何時？突然覺得自己也變得豪放起來。
既然看我這麽豪爽，這位導遊也很爽快地介紹了很多自己的情況。他叫Chengis，學商學的，去過中國，在香港呆過三個月學英語，也因此有個香港女朋友。自己和親戚原先在大陸有Pumice的生意，但是後來應為中國的合作夥伴拖欠了4万美元而放棄了和大陸Pumice的直接生意往來，轉而找了個阿拉伯的中間人來料理。但是他們還是希望找個信得過的大陸人來做生意。言下之意……確實他給了我很多暗示，還向我展示他的朋友和親戚的Pumice企業的網站，最後他乾脆說：“一年以後，你畢業了，和我一起做吧。”如果此時我有一雙筷子在手的話，我一定會和當年的劉備一樣，筷子應聲落地。我最終沒有給他一個明確的答復。不過他幫我搞定了回程的車票，雖然第一次搞錯了時間，但是他最後還是在星期天下午把車票交給了我，使得我可以準時返回Ankara。
告別了Cengiz，我把一切交給了旅行社。第一天旅行，在團裏有兩個韓國大學生，雖然我到現在也沒有記住他們兩人的名字，但是他們確實這兩年少有地在離開時問我要聯係方式的人。——這幾年感覺都是我先問別人要聯係方式，似乎從來沒有人問我要聯係方式的。將心比心，我問別人要聯係方式的時候，都算挺誠心誠意的，想必他們也是吧。想來想去，能讓他們覺得我這個朋友值得交的恐怕主要也就是在參觀一些無聊的私人作坊時，我不時給於他們一些導遊懶得去說或者不屑去說的小知識，使得那些參觀不至於因爲帶有某些商業目的，而太過無聊。而另一個原因，或許要歸功於SJC的一個理念：要擺時間下去才能得到感情。整個旅途中，幾乎我與這兩個韓國人在一起的時間最多，拍照的時候也總是我幫他們兩個一起拍，他們又幫我拍。我們還可以共同討論一下李明博的美國牛肉政策。
第一天的紅線旅遊（也就是Göreme）當地的旅遊，以Göreme國家公園為開端。確實，能在這樣感覺是荒山野嶺的地方，開鑿這樣的神奇的教堂、城堡、或是其他一些建築，確實令人驚嘆。不過從建築本身而言，難度並不大。因爲Cappadocia是由幾千年前的火山灰及各種大山踫撞后形成，堅硬的表面實際上覆蓋在類似石灰的非常細膩、柔軟的土質上，開山、鑿洞並不是那麽難的。不過從外表上看，仍然值得人們驚嘆一番。由於國家公園的部分主要是類似于宗教神學院的地方，所看到的壁畫也主要是耶穌基督及《聖經》上的故事。那些被穆斯林挖去頭部的基督教壁畫到現在看來都依然是十分生動的。
除了國家公園，我們也當然要羡慕一下那些各式各樣的山谷。在鴿子谷，面對那粉紅色、黃色的裸露岩石和一個個為收集鴿子屎作肥料而開鑿的小洞也令人心曠神怡——尤其是站在遠處的山上俯視，效果不錯。
仙人煙囪也是極有代表性的參觀地點。雖然旅行團決不會給你充足的時間去靠近他們，但是很明顯，即使是站在附近的山坡上留張影也已經很令人心滿意足。畢竟如此龐然大物，如此奇特的精致，即使是到此一游也有足夠的理由去自豪。而這樣的“煙囪”，除非你是專業攀岩，恐怕一輩子你都上不去。
至於那些觀看打磨礦石、品酒、製作陶器的節目，那相對那些自然景觀就乏味得多。
第二天的旅程是綠綫，那是一個必須推薦的旅程。輕鬆、愉快，有沒有那些乏味的表演節目。不過介紹綠綫之前，怎麽也得介紹一下我那花了250Lira的Cappadocia熱氣球旅行！
前一天，在一個景點偶遇的三個臺灣同學（他們一開始和我說英語，以爲我是韓國人，我一聼就帶有大中華地區的口音）竟然巧合的與我同坐同一艘熱氣球！而前一日分手時，匆亂的沒有留聯係方式，以爲再也見不到，沒想到這一次竟然可以以這種方式重逢！
五點就出發坐車前往熱氣球的升空地點。到熱氣球升空，差不多都六點半了。依然是清晨，儅所有的繩索被鬆開，噴射槍再次為氣球的氣體加熱時，熱氣球就這樣升空了。這是一個很簡單，很平靜，卻又會令人憧憬的時刻。你可以坐飛機升空，但是永遠擁有不了如此靈活的視野；你可以攀上高樓去俯瞰一個城市，但是景致卻永遠是靜止的。然而，熱氣球的好處就在於兩者兼備。Cappadocia的地貌是多變的。你永遠無法了解爲什麽這個地方可以有那麽多不同形態、不同性質的岩石、山丘、高山、峽谷，也無法了解爲什麽那些古老民族的人們會依山建造出那麽多奇特的建築。但是你卻不得不確信，Cappadocia這個意為“美麗家園”的名字是起得多麽的恰當。
熱氣球飛行員是一個叫Jerry的英國人。他不停地和一對加拿大老年夫婦介紹一些關於Cappadocia的形成和周邊環境的信息。有時也必須爲了飛行安全保持與地勤的聯絡，並不是囑咐身邊的助手幾句。
我們的熱氣球在不停的上升，那些雪白的能讓你誤以爲是冰川的山丘在不停的遠離我們，而我們也漸漸裏看到日出山頂的那一刹那越來越近。經歷了整個行程之後就會知道，一旦太陽照耀下，再經歷噴射槍的“勢力範圍輻射”，那滋味就決不好受。而沒有太陽未升起或為照射到身上的時候，那感覺好很多。
拍了很多照片，因爲實在描述不出來那景致。還是看照片來得生動。
綠綫的主要行程包括參觀古絲綢之路上的一座驛站、Ihlara峽谷的漫步、Derinkuyu地下城的參觀以及一些古代村落遺跡。一路上有一個科威特人陪著，特有意思。Sabah，這位高高瘦瘦的科威特人，是個機械師——不過通過他的通常不知所謂的英語，大致知道他應該更像那些初級質檢的機械師，不需太強的技術。Sabah非常喜歡停下來拍照、攝影，每次總是落在隊伍的最後面。在Ihlara峽谷漫步時，和他在一起的時候，甚至好幾次差點追不到隊伍。一旦隊伍停下來，他就會向導遊“抱怨”隊伍行進太快了，爲什麽總是不給人時間拍照。這是個很會笑的人，也很搞笑。吃飯的時候，突然之間就拿出他們阿拉伯人常帶的白色頭巾了。然後就給自己裹上，讓人拍照，之後又自動給幾乎每一個人都戴上拍照。
另一對美國父女其實從第一天就和我們在一起游完。女兒讀法律的，對人顯得有些冷漠。對那位科威特人似乎特別冷淡。尤其是儅科威特人做出一些令人好笑的行爲時，她的表情往往顯露出些許不屑。父親要和藹些，是做汽車保險生意的。挺喜歡和人討論一些事情。同行的一位印度尼西亞遊客想和他討論美國大選，猜測這位先生是民主黨的支持者時，沒想到這位是共和黨人！那個時候，並不是那麽尷尬，不過有些好笑。
Ihlara峽谷的漫步是很舒服的一件事情，因爲天氣原本很熱，但是在峽谷内一點都不覺得。一邊是山，一邊是小溪流。應該是這個地帶很少見到的綠色的土地了。水流很輕，那些沿路的石頭又恰到好處，和那些緣溪而生的植物一起適時地為溪流遮羞。
而在Derinkuyu地下城的參觀幾乎令人驚嘆。28層的地下城，雖然只允許遊客進入到第7層，但是那巨大的規模，以及齊全的設施佈局令人驚嘆。據説，人們在遇到威脅的時候通常可以在這樣的地下城呆上一個月，等威脅過後在離開。地下城的大門通常是用圓形的大圓石像退移門一樣關上之後，再用些石塊堵住。當地曾有電視直播關上地下城的大門，在現代的技術下，竟花了七個小時才能夠撬開！

2008年7月7日-7月11日
在描述這個神奇的星期之前，必須先介紹一個少年。他不是這個星期的人物，但是他的出現卻似乎預示著這個星期的故事發生的某种必然性。
這位俄羅斯少年名叫Vagiz Duseev，是我在Göreme的旅館裏遇到的。他和他的家人前來旅行。儅我得知他只有16嵗，但是卻遊歷了大多數的中亞、東歐國家以及很多歐洲國家，我不禁對少年的初衷感到好奇。他告訴我：“我要做一個好的商人，遊歷這些國家，可以使我了解他們做生意的方式。”爲此他還會努力學習旅行國家的語言，這次來土耳其，他花了兩個月學土耳其語。基本上可以和當地人進行聊天！
他問了我關於中國商業的一些情況，而我則更喜歡問他一些俄羅斯政治的看法。如果不是他病了，他父親讓他早點回去睡覺，也許我們可以聊得更多。但是我們對對方都很有好感，互相留下聯係方式。當我抱怨，俄羅斯人總是喜歡用俄語的聯絡方式，而不願意用更通用的MSN，facebook等程序，旅店的一名來自土耳其東部地區的實習生便插話說我是示意要Vagiz長大開公司后我好聯係他為他工作。沒有料到，Vagiz竟然很自然地回應說，那要等我成爲一個出色的經濟學家！
多麽實際、真實！理性地尋求利益最大化！這些想法恐怕只有商人才能運用的如此自然，學者恐怕一輩子只能為之作詮釋，而無法如此自然地在生活中運用這些經濟原理！
而兩天之後，儅我終于被允許到ATO工作，我發現，我來到了一個不同于TOBB，完全陌生的環境。一個充滿了商人的世界。
星期一來到ATO，完全感受不到這是一個協會主席剛剛被捕，處在政治風波中央的組織。每個人照舊工作，每一天前來辦理Carnet等各種商業證明的Ankara商人絡繹不絕，而ATO的工作人員也好像完全沒有什麽事發生一樣，照舊辦公、説笑、吃飯、下班。星期二，在剛剛熟悉了ATO的一些基本任務之後，上司Faruk先生就邀請我和辦公室的另兩個同事一起吃午飯。午飯是在家樂福商業中心的一個非常不錯的餐廳進行的。飯前，Faruk先生還帶我在商業中心轉了一圈，列舉了他眼中的繁華的商業中心和充滿魅力的Ankara。雖然感覺有些無功不受祿，但是考慮到這幾個星期見到的土耳其人大都非常熱情，也就有些習以爲常了。
下午，Faruk先生親自給我講解Ankara的經濟和社會狀況，對一個來自遙遠國家的實習生招待如此，感動得我真不知道該怎麽回報。可是很快，話題便轉到了一個令我完全沒有想到的方面：我的任務是在三天半之内寫一份關於建立一個引進中國技術的私人土耳其漁業養殖基地，並且我要考慮運用我的個人關係網絡尋找可能的合作夥伴——是我自己也不要緊！而這個項目，我只對Faruk先生負責！
這不是要我從商！我從沒有想過自己會以這樣的方式捲入潛在的商業行爲中，而短短一個小時之後，ATO的另一位同事借讓我幫到註冊中文Paypal的機會，向我大肆介紹他自己的皮包厰，更借機詢問我是否有商業關係或者有意向幫他擴展他的中土貿易！他還邀請我第二天參觀他的公司和他的母校！
一天之内接到兩個商業邀請，算上在Göreme導遊邀請我考慮pumice生意，一下子，世界被商業、外貿包圍，這是我從來沒有想過的。那天快下班時，Faruk當著我的面和那位皮包厰的同事說我是“真主拯救的人”！
因爲這個星期我和TOBB-ETU的幾個同學一起住，回到家，第一個反應就是不知所措地向他們描述自己遇到的情景。講完了，自己也慢慢安靜下來，靜靜地思考該怎麽辦，同時也在想象第二天收到父親的回信，會是什麽樣的情景。
我自己的想法就是這應該都只是商人的特有行爲，簡單的說就是廣種薄收。散出去的網越大越好，能夠有收穫，最好；萬一沒什麽結果，也不要緊，説不定什麽時候會派上用場。所以我就決定跟他們“玩玩”，如果能夠有結果最好，沒有結果也就算了。更何況我在ATO的時間本來就不多，只有一個星期，其實是比較難有什麽合作的。不過原先預料家人可能會比較謹慎。只不過沒想到，家人的回應是非常積極的。
而第二天從幾個哈薩克斯坦實習生那裏聽到類似的故事，自己就更加心定，因爲事情的發展和自己的預料差不多，商人就是商人，商業行爲也就是商業行爲。
於是開始了積極地探索，去了解自己要做的項目的背景，市場的實際狀況。這當中，一個親戚也提供了寶貴的幫助。雖然三天時間，把市場的大致情況了解了清楚，自己也有了第一個商業合作可能性的結論。雖然這個結論和一開始上司估計的有所出入，但是這卻是真正的市場效應！雖然感覺上未必能促成一次真正的商業合作，但是怎麽說自己都是作出了一定的貢獻。
下個星期要去Ankara Sanayi Odası工作，所以週五離別時，和幾個哈薩克實習生互換聯係方式。沒料到，他們也都是只使用俄語的程序非常不方便。我在想，爲什麽俄羅斯人和前蘇聯的一些國家永遠都走不出原來的框框，融入到世界的發展中呢？不過轉念一想，又發現其實是自己錯了。用母語的程序並沒有什麽不對，誰要自己因爲在香港，就沒怎麽接觸過中文用的程序，大多是用英語所以才導致這種情況的發生。不過前蘇聯國家的人應該同時多用一些英語的程序平臺，和人多交流才好。
週三時，參加了TOBBETU的同學的一個會議，其實和當今大學的共青團的會議沒什麽特別大的區別。除了一開始的宗教相關的儀式和朗讀宗教相關文章之後，就是有一個類似于輔導員的先生佈置最近一段時期的重要事務，偶爾有學生討論，再之後就開始隨便地聊天，看看最近大家和大家周圍的人有什麽需要和幫助。這個討論就會比較熱烈些。其實除了宗教相關的部分，這個會議和共青團的會議都是希望幫助青年了解社會，幫助周圍的人。不過我一直很好奇，當今的中國青年還有多少人會願意像土耳其青年那樣靜下心去聼人講一些理念。如今在某些方面反對個人崇拜到了極點，卻又可能對娛樂明星崇拜到五體投地的中國青年，似乎找不出什麽理由可以讓他們如此虔誠、至少是如此安靜認真的聼某個人演講。大多數演講結束，便是遭到聽衆的一致批評和不屑，似乎每個人都有演講者的水平。

土耳其之旅（五）

2008-09-06T07:38:00.000+08:00

2008年6月27日-29日
應Emre邀請前往Eskişehir住了三天，這三天就有如是中國人過年一樣，不停地串門，看新鮮。
前往Eskişehir的路上，我們現在Gordion附近的一個小鎮停留。那裏住著Emre的叔叔Mustafa。很有意思的是Mustafa和Emre的父親都是軍人，也許是軍人家庭的某种特性，我和他們後來都很談得來。Mustafa的妻子是韃靼人，長得和我舅媽什麽的沒什麽特別的不同，只不過膚色不需要凃什麽霜什麽奶也顯得白一些。Mustafa的女兒只有三嵗，看到我就嚇得不敢看，連飯都不肯一起吃。（後來發現，之後見到我的土耳其兩三嵗的小孩不是嚇得躲起來就是躲不掉直哭，我怎麽那麽不討小孩子喜歡呢？）雖然三天下來，她後來見我不躲了，但是到了最後也不肯跟我説話，不能不說是一個遺憾。
因爲那天是星期五，下午有特殊的禱告，在和鎮上一個小清真寺的長老溝通后，我也參加了他們的那個禱告。人們陸續走來，靜靜的坐在那裏，聼鎮上中央清真寺的長老誦讀經文；有幾個人想到清真寺前一些的位置上去，虔誠地爬過去。雖然禱告有一個大致的起始和結束，但是因爲每個人禱告的禱告詞不同，每個人完成行禮的時間長短也是不同的。對我而言，整個人坐在小腿上的滋味實在是難捱。雖然盡可能地一動不動，一為尊重場合，二為體驗一下那些虔誠教徒們的禱告，三是儅做一次伊斯蘭的初學者，不過最後還是頂不住，靜靜地轉爲盤腿，以放鬆一下。禱告結束，Emre告訴我，在禱告的過程中，長老也替我作了禱告。
下午在Gordion的福裏吉亞王國遺址稍作停留，Mustafa便開車一路載著我們前往Eskişehir。
在Eskişehir，我們的第一站是婚禮新娘的娘家，一群土耳其婦女頭裹頭巾，熱情地迎接著到來的親戚。那個熱情勁，一個個臉貼臉的行禮過去，又是滿臉的笑容，坐下來不久還有飯吃，那時也才下午五點左右。和很多土耳其老式家庭一樣，我們坐在院子裏吃飯。有一種我以爲和我們粽子差不多的食物，只不過小了很多。看到他們連外面包的葉子也吃了，才知道那不是荷葉，其實是院子裏籐架上的一種植物的葉子罷了。
吃完飯，我們沒坐多久就又前往Emre外祖父、外祖母的家。那是大約70年代建的老房子，正在搞隔熱系統，所以房子外面有點亂，但是裏面整整齊齊。Emre的外祖父認認真真地告訴我他今年有73嵗了，但是看看他剛才還在外面幫手一起搬建築材料，真不相信啊。正是在那裏地停留，Mustafa向我問了很多關於香港的地位和中國管治的問題，我盡量給這位能操流利英語、經常聼”Beautiful California”的土耳其軍官比較完整的個人分析。他也對我們的舍堂教育非常感興趣，我們的討論很自由、友好，也奠定了我和Mustafa友好關係的基礎。
到了晚間，我們終于要前往婚宴了。新娘是Emre的表姨，不過因爲年齡和Emre差不多，所以關係更似姐弟。婚禮其實進行了兩天，不過因爲工作關係，抽不出時間，所以我們今天來之能趕上婚宴。婚宴在市中心的一個酒吧舉行。一進去，把我嚇壞了，一整個酒吧其實和一個大倉庫的面積差不多，一張張桌子坐滿的親朋好友。怎麽也有100桌吧？那豈不是要吃死新婚夫婦不成？
慢慢的，才知道原來婚宴是沒有什麽食物吃的，主要是看表演，以及由親朋好友與新娘新郎跳舞。前來的那麽多親朋好友，也不是白看表演，白跳舞的。在婚宴進行到一半的時候，會有一個中場休息，停下來讓所有的親朋好友送禮。這禮可不是隨便送的，近親通常需要送一個小的金飾品，一場婚宴下來，新娘新郎可以說收穫頗丰。這次的新娘可就左手右手都帶滿了金銀手鐲，還有腰帶上的長長一串的金飾品啊！這些收穫的價值就在於婚宴后，新婚夫婦會變賣這些禮物，換錢來填補婚宴的虧空！龐大的婚宴的秘密原來在此！大家庭的好處原來也在於此！
第二天在Emre家吃了一頓豐盛的早餐，Emre一家，Mustafa一家都在。Emre的外祖母，一名退休廚師還做了烤麵包給我們。那些奇奇怪怪的果漿和奶酪令我眩暈。
我們花了大約兩個小時經歷了在土耳其修汽車的麻煩。我們先到一家郊區的鄰居開的修理車庫去，但儅要保險公司賠保時，他們又指定我們去另外一個地方。在那裏，發現原來保險公司搞錯了信息，不修理反光鏡鬆動的問題，我們只好去了第三個地方。可惜是星期六，所以只能辦理登記手續，要星期一才能修。之後在加完油以後又第一次坐在車内觀賞洗車機器幫我們的車子洗車。車子洗完了，反光鏡也掉下來了，只好再勉勉強強重新安上。
然後便是去了Hamamyolu（浴室大街）被認爲最好的一家溫泉浴室洗一個正宗的土耳其溫泉浴。那和在İzmir的Hamam洗澡可是大不一樣的。進了浴室，看見一個水池，那裏遠遠不斷的流入地下溫泉——這是Eskişehir最引以爲傲的東西了吧，據説水溫能有60多度。Emre說很燙，做了沒一會兒就走了。我試了試，果然很燙，把腳伸進去，在池子邊緣坐了一會兒，慢慢地把腿也伸進去。沒一會兒，腿就紅了。據説這裡還經常有人從早泡到晚，真不知道那些人的皮膚怎麽受的了。這個時候也許會有些受不了，不過要靠冥想應該還實能夠頂住的。想象一下血液在血管中奔湧，從下往上，沖上背脊，並從裏向外有一股蒸汽出來。忽然覺得背脊上有一股涼意，原來我背靠門坐著，有人進來，當然外面的涼氣逼人。不過那蒸汽還是不停的向外冒，與涼氣抗衡。其實説白了，也就是你的汗液不停地滲出來，不過那是很舒服的感覺罷了。很遺憾，進進出出的人太多，涼氣一會兒、一會兒地吹進來，但是腿已經熱得不行了，最後覺得有些抗不住，又不想挪到其他地方去，就直接出來了，沒有把整個身子泡進去。如果一開始找一個不靠門的地方就好了。
之後就找了個土耳其按摩的，那個力量還是挺大的，搓啊搓啊搓，上身也變紅啦。等再沖完涼，出來，用那些暖暖的頭頸、浴巾包了個嚴嚴實實，那個裝束和阿拉伯人就沒有什麽區別了。
吃過晚飯，就與Emre和他的未婚妻Rehime一起逛街。畢竟Eskişehir是一個比較繁華的現代化城市，主要的步行街還是值得一看的。那裏，Emre和Rehime在書店關門的前一刻買了本英文版《古蘭經》送給我。而在大大小小的商店間穿過，有經過了一座座咖啡店、酒吧，這座城市的現代化城區也就基本在我們腳下走得差不多了。我問Emre什麽是Eskişehir的徽章。他不知道，問Rehime。Rehime拿出一張交通卡，才發現那個徽章與其它土耳其城市徽章比起來實在是乏味的很，一個大寫的白絲印刷體E和一個小寫的綠色書寫体e和在一起便是了。完全令人摸不到頭腦。
星期天早上，趕往Rehime的家吃早飯，只有她和她父親在家。他父親問了我很多問題。雖然他只是一個建築工地的工人，但是聼了我的回答，也有很多好的見解，比如説他認爲如果毛主席在五六十年代更關注經濟而不是因爲擔心第三次世界大戰而實行“光榮媽媽”的政策，中國現在會好的多。
上午我們前往Eskişehir最好的一個大商場Espark逛了一圈。而下午則應邀去出席一個小孩子成人的傳統儀式。一般土耳其男孩在6-10嵗期間都會割去陰莖前的一段包皮，伴隨手術的還有那繁複的儀式。小男孩會穿著傳統的奧斯曼帝國時期的服裝，手持小手杖，出席儀式。而儀式前後的一個星期，小男孩的床會被一個類似于蚊帳但經過裝飾的帳子覆蓋。可惜那家的儀式安排上出了問題，等了很久都沒有開始。結果只是參觀了他們的房間，Rehime的父親就開車帶我們去Eskişehir的老城區看奧斯曼帝國時期的老房子。到了最後也沒有看到儀式的高潮部分，只能用在Selçuk看到的那個片斷做一個大致的想象了。
晚間，買了大約24Lira的甜點作爲禮物帶囘Emre家。他父母非常高興，他父親總是喜歡用幾個英文單詞湊句子，這一次就讓我”You not forget here”。而曾經有一次，他說的是”room hot, windows open”讓我晚上開窗子睡覺，因爲沒有空調、沒有電扇的房間實在太熱了。Emre的媽媽還送了我好些東西。一雙自己織的毛綫襪和一件披肩都是送給我媽媽的，一個nazar boncuğu的裝飾品讓我好挂在新房子裏。而我也成爲了他們的第三個兒子，Emre的弟弟和Murat的哥哥。

2008年6月30日-7月3日
自從去了Eskişehir之後，手機就再也不能夠打電話了。搞了半天才搞不明白，直到今天給Emre看了一則之前收到的土耳其語短信才明白是怎麽囘事。土耳其爲了防止水貨手機的銷售，便只給在土耳其登記過的手機服務。大約是之前打了兩個電話，他們發現我的手機是沒有登記過的，所以就把我停機了。不過這個措施對身在土耳其的外國人來説絕對是不公平的。應該可以找個辦法，恢復過來吧。
週二由於一不小心睡過了頭，結果錯過了7：25班車。於是決心8點時想辦法做小巴。沒料到，八點在車站遇到了第一天去實習的Selçuk，向他請教做什麽車。乘小巴時他還問了我一些關於中國的問題。沒料到，第二天下班后，他因爲來Kızılay看朋友，所以也乘坐7：15的班車。發現他也有韃靼人的血統（因爲他facebook上韃靼人的民族自豪感很強，幾乎所有的韃靼國家的國旗和成吉思汗相在他facebook上都能找到）。他給我描述了他對於韃靼人形成及民族的認識。好吧，我要說，在此之前我一直把成吉思汗也作爲中國人看待的。爲什麽不是呢？那麽大的疆域。雖然講中國歷史，改朝換代那一節總是講外族侵略，不過講到後面，我怎麽聼都怎麽覺得當了皇帝的就是中國人了呀。不過韃靼人是不是這樣認爲可就是另一回事了。
更奇特的是，週四就來了一批吉爾吉斯斯坦的實習生，一個個長得和我沒什麽太大分別，可是說的是土耳其語啊！這倒也是，都是突厥人的後裔。可是爲什麽土耳其人很多都跟向白人呢？難道是白人接納了突厥語？還是突厥人使用了原先生活在土耳其的民族的語言？事實上，就是生活在土耳其的長的像白人的人，大多數也流著突厥人的血液。突厥人在在土耳其的土地上與白人通婚，所以才長成那個樣子。想想君士坦丁堡以前就是突厥人、阿拉伯人和歐洲人混雜的城市，歷史上的土耳其實在是包容性比較大的。
下周原定于去Ankara Tıcaret Odasi上班，但是在經濟關係部的工作還沒有結束。Ms Füsun很不想我走。而土耳其最近政局動蕩，由於官僚機構和AKP的對立，加上由於Constitutional Court遲遲未對於AKP的命運下定論，各種政治力量的角逐是顯而易見的。Ankara Tıcaret Odasi的主席星期二剛剛被軍方逮捕。軍方和民間產生了激烈的爭論。TOBB的主席認爲這完全就是對個人尊嚴實施的軍事政變！就這樣，我現在工作的地方，和我即將可能去的地方都捲入了這場政治風波。Ms Füsun又提到今天我們的一位同事剛好因病去世，那神情就好像天塌下來一樣。原本我很想去ATO，尤其想看看政治風波中的人會是如何，不過現在一切都要看明天Ms Füsun和人力資源部主任談的結果了。

土耳其之旅（四）

2008-09-06T07:35:00.000+08:00

2008年6月18日-6月20日
星期四的時候，有了自己的臨時的辦公桌和電腦，不再和Emre共用同一個桌子了。工作也漸漸多起來。不僅僅是做Summary，也包括搜索有關土耳其的新聞做摘要以及寫一篇關於土耳其經濟狀況的簡述。漸漸感覺的工作的擔子了。不過大多數工作都能夠順利而又快速的完成。有時可以從主管Füsun的表情上讀出驚訝。我想有的工作，她佈置了只不過是想讓我別閒著，我這麽快地完成，恐怕讓她給我想新任務增添的難度。
週四上午，Emre告訴我的三個同學對我昨天沒有去他們家感到非常不安。尤其是Beysin，他還特意煮了雞肉，但是沒有等到我。我只好寫了封短信交給Emre讓他帶回去，向三位轉達我並非因爲他們招待不周而不去，只不過是沒有接到過週三要去的邀請而以，並且許諾下次再去拜訪。結果週五上午上班，Emre竟告訴我，他們三個看了信，感動得哭了。天下竟然有比我還多愁善感的人，真是沒有想到。
週五晚上十點坐上了去İzmir的長途巴士。一路上正是電臺直播土耳其對克羅地亞的歐冠賽實況，所有的乘客都聚精會神地聼著。全場結束后，加時賽土耳其終于進了一球，全車人在那裏歡呼。雖然最後比賽由拖入加時賽，但是大家熱情依然不減。——土耳其的廣播信號好象不太好，總是時有時無，竟然在點球大戰的最後一刻變得無聲無息，全車人又屏息凝神地聼，直到估計比賽結束了，還是沒有能聽到結果，不禁有些失望。不過，在下一個加油站休息時，大家還是從其他車子的乘客那裏了解到土耳其勝利的消息，無不歡喜。那已經是淩晨一、二點的事了。

2008年6月21日
到達İzmir只有早上六點多，早的很。乘坐的長途汽車竟然不是在城市的Otogar（長途汽車站）停的車，而是在自己公司的車站内。他們有專門的車子送乘客去市中心。於是在市中心下車，步行前往Cumhuriyet Meydanı（共和國廣場）。共和國廣場位于Atatürk (Kondon) Cad的一側盡頭，就在海邊——幾乎所有的人小時候聼神話故事都聼過的愛琴海。
到達共和國廣場時，太陽已經升起了一會兒，但是月亮還挂在天空。海邊已有人在那裏釣魚。其實這個海邊更確切的說是一個海灣，遙望可以看到對面的海岸與山地。海水藍得透徹，有風，並不平靜。廣場的南面是一個小碼頭，如同天星碼頭那樣，伸入海中。沿著海邊，一直向北走，走過了整個Atatürk Kondon也只不過二十多分鐘，原本計劃準備從Kondon參觀完Atatürk Evi之後一直向南走的旅程，因爲要等到Evi九點開門而不得不推遲。
Atrtürk Evi不大，但是展現了19世紀土耳其富豪的生活。面海、上下兩層、臥室、起居室、客房、書房、餐廳、洗浴室、梳妝室一應俱全，還有各種各樣的家具、裝飾顯得金碧輝煌。那一面面巨大的鏡子又使得空間感更強。據説，以前İzmir海邊到處都是這樣的房子，不過現在沒有幾座了，全都改爲一棟棟九層高，八層住人底下作咖啡館、酒吧的標準海濱風景公寓了。其實那風光，一排公寓，還有那一幕幕百葉窗帘，也是不錯的。
沿海邊回到共和國廣場后，向市中心方向穿過幾條街道就可以到達文化公園。那裏有Tarih ve Sanat Müzesi（歷史與文化博物館）。那個地方的展品實在是很好，收羅了很多İzmir附近出土的各個時期的雕像、陶器和手工藝品。要感謝中學的傅鋼老師，如果不是他的西方美術上的生動，可能也不會有我之後義務支教充當初中美術欣賞老師，也不會有我現在對於這些藝術品的欣賞與喜愛。雖然水平有限，很多東西還説不清、道不明，但是以我所了解的一些基本欣賞技巧，至少使我不致于淪落為一個純粹走馬觀花的看客。只可惜那個地方沒有人什麽參觀，埋沒了那些精致的展品。
İzmir的古代市場Agora的出現，真正使我的土耳其之旅開始了探索古希臘和古羅馬文明的旅程。這個Agora原為亞歷山大大帝所建，在一場大地震后被毀。之後由羅馬人重建。西面豎立著一排石柱，地面以下可以清晰地看到一個個圓拱，那時曾經的門洞。走下去，竟然還能看到一泓清水源源不斷的湧出。不仔細看，市場只不過是一堆石頭的堆砌和一些平常的街道而已。但是想想兩千年前的人將城市規劃作到如此地步，又有那些精美的雕刻，如拱門上方的Faustina女士頭像以及那些石柱底盤的雕花，這些實在是令人嘆爲觀止的。
現代的İzmir Bazaar（集市）在規模上一點都不比Agora遜色。一間間店鋪，五花八門的商品，熙熙攘攘的人群，還有到處是熱情過頭的店家、小二。原本想在那兒買一件Nazar Bonocuğu（藍眼睛）的挂飾，不過找了半天都沒有合適的。在一家非常齊全的Nazar專賣店裏，竟然得到“那些飾品都是為女士準備的”的答案，令自己苦笑不得。最後只好在另一家鋪子花兩里拉買了一件Nazar的手鏈作紀念。
在政府大樓廣場附近拍攝愛琴海的照片，結果竟有兩位İzmir美女主動要求和我照相。弄得我不好意思起來。記得以前只有在APEC青年科學節的時候，爲了陪一個印度尼西亞人，和兩個俄羅斯美女照過合影，和年輕陌生女性的合影幾乎就只剩下這次的這兩位了吧。兩位著粉紅色衣服，我著藍白條紋，背後是湛藍的愛琴海，自我感覺還挺不錯呢（尤其在一幫圍觀的土耳其青年中間，這種感覺尤甚）。
臨近黃昏時，在附近坐公交車前往Kadifekale（天鵝絨城堡），這是亞歷山大大帝建立的防禦工事。雖然城牆又個別地方已經不全，但是總體上依然給人很安全的感覺。又是建立在山上，可以俯瞰整個İzmir和海灣。站在城堡之巔，才終于明白爲什麽古書上總是強調戰略要地的重要性。這就是戰略要地，是兵家必爭之地啊！
在城堡上認識一個當地的司機，他送我囘旅館。在車上，他自己噴香水，還突然轉身幫我噴。搞得我一時不知所措。土耳其人喜歡噴香水，我已經領教多次，只不過這一次熱情到直接把香水往我脖子上噴，我實在是不習慣啊。我不噴香水的。

2008年6月22日
一早坐小巴從İzmir趕往Selçuk。那是又一個重要的古羅馬遺址Efes(Ephesus)所在地。在車上認識一個叫Ankara Koreli Can.的韓國人，土耳其語系在讀本科，不怎麽會說英語，不過我們用英語和土耳其語混雜著溝通，並決定一同遊覽Efes。
Efes的規模挺大，從宮殿到民宅、從古羅馬劇場到公共廁所，幾乎展現了一個古羅馬市鎮的全部生活遺址。這是我第一次真正見到一個比較完整的古羅馬劇院。在Ankara的舊城區，雖然也有一個，但是殘破到很難看出劇院的完整結構。但這次不同，這次的劇院有清晰的輪廓、完整的舞臺和一排排依山而建的座位席，非常宏偉。由於依山而建，每一個座位上的人視野都可以清晰覆蓋整個舞臺；據説這樣的設計也有利於位于舞臺中央的演員的聲音傳遞。不過坐在最高層的人，雖然能夠看清楚舞臺上的人的每一個位置，又能夠聽到他們的聲音，但是畢竟太高，恐怕很難看清演員的臉部表情了，俯視，只看到人的頭頂了。不過，這露天的劇院是如此的宏大，恐怕就是上海大劇院也應該向他低下頭，讚嘆一番，然後再作比較。不過我反而覺得，與其和現代的劇院相比，不如用現代體育場設計作比較更恰當。就當作是半個上海八万人體育場吧。
而在那些石刻上時不時有一些精美的十字架、獅子和人物的圖形，很清晰地提示人們，這裡的文明曾經是基督教文明的影響範圍。與奧斯曼帝國和后奧斯曼帝國時期有很明顯的差異。Can.在一個石碑上發現一個心形圖案，但是經我分析只是一片樹葉圖案而已，這在之後由其他一些石刻上的樹葉圖形得以印證。
在Efes可以看到很多韓文的遺址介紹，估計是sumsung花錢捐的。另有不少韓國散客遊覽此地。在Efes的下巴站，我們還遇到了另一位年輕韓國女人，她從事時裝行業。她也加入了我們，一起遊覽。她除了說韓語，還說法語，懂一些英語。
我們回到Selçuk之後就遊覽了一個博物館、一個清真寺，還吃了一頓飯。吃飯期間，看到了一群人奏樂護送幾個小孩子去參加成人儀式。
這一天實在是很熱，不說出來，還不覺得，但是儅上了小巴之後看到溫度顯示為43攝氏度時，才能意識到這是多麽的炎熱的夏天。也難怪我們在送走韓國女人之後（她下午四點去Cappadocia），決定改變計劃去Kuşadası——土耳其的一個著名海灘。
那裏的海是南愛琴海，而之前去的İzmir位于北愛琴海。這裡的沙灘與香港有所不同，踏入水中，沙子迅速消失，取而代之的是一塊塊的石頭。有些不習慣。沙灘処的水還是比較清澈的（雖然韓國人覺得有點混濁），但是之後去那些沒有沙灘的地方，發現那水清澈得有些寶石綠的感覺，顔色十分動人。海的遼闊，再加之沿路是平時我們國人比較少見的一排排棕櫚樹（İzimir也有棕櫚樹），那種夏日風光和我們通常所見的真是不同。
由於時間所限，我和Can.在海水中泡了一會兒，就前往當地的一個小島（Kuşadası的名字即來自于那個島）。那個小島很漂亮，但是令人印象深刻的還是從島上高出看到的海景。如果不是爲了趕時間，留得在晚些到傍晚的時候，風光應該更好。
晚上回到İzmir，在一家叫Güneydoğu的小餐館吃飯。這是我第二次在這裡吃了。昨天在這裡吃了Izgara Köfte（烤肉丸），覺得非常好吃，所以今天又來了。而且主人家很和藹可親，做飯時，會不時哼哼小曲。昨天，他的孫子在的時候，覺得他孫子也很可愛，很安靜的坐在一邊聼我和一位食客用德語交談。之後還很主動的幫我跑出去找零錢。今天來一來是吃飯，二來也想同他們祖孫告別。同主人家用土耳其語描述了半天我今天的行程，還問了他孫子在那裏，想跟他們拍照。主人家竟激動得說，那麽多人吃飯，我是第一個想到要和他溝通的。可惜他的孫子不在，沒法同他合影。
吃晚飯，把行李放在店中，便去了附近的Hamam洗了個土耳其浴。自己是第一次去，不知道規矩，而且又是周日，浴室根本沒有其他浴客，連個照樣子的都沒有，只好洗完一步，跑出去問管理員下一步該幹什麽。而且語言還不通。好在洗土耳其浴從頭到尾都是有浴巾包著下身的，所以出來問人不至於太過難堪。
坐淩晨的長途汽車又從İzmir趕回了Ankara。

土耳其之旅（二）

2008-09-06T07:34:00.001+08:00

2008年6月10日
這兩天，在看柏楊的《醜陋的中國人》，覺得他書中關於中國人的複雜性還是對的。中國人不夠開朗，太喜歡猜忌，總是先懷疑對方，再從不同的方面考證，然後得出一個結論。
我在土耳其工作的頭兩天，我就犯了這個毛病。Emre在工作的星期一下午，很熱情地邀請我去他們家吃飯，他說我不介意的話甚至可以在他家裏過夜。我想，臨離開香港的時候，ILOP的輔導員曾說過要我們小心，如果一見面就提出去家裏吃飯的，最好就不要去，以免生事。於是我推説如果要過夜，還得回家拿衣服，算了。Emre當即說，不如星期二或者星期三吧。我敷衍著，既沒好意思告訴他不去，也沒有確認哪一天去。那天下午，Emre和我討論了很多話題，又提到他有一個未婚妻在家鄉Eskişehir，明年如果攻讀博士就把她一起帶去。看樣子，是個好人。但是我還是沒有決定要不要去。一直到下班，我們再也沒有決定哪一天去，什麽時候去的問題。
第二天上午，剛剛上班，Emre突然問我有沒有帶睡衣。我想，是不是我聼錯了？後來才明白他覺得我今天會去他家。我面露難色，忙說，自己沒有帶衣服。Emre說，沒事，我有，晚上我借你。幸好昨天基本確認Emre沒有惡意，我才靜下心來，接受了邀請。
一個上午，我就不停地在想，自己怎麽猜忌心那麽重，怎麽就沒有發現，土耳其人原本就是那麽熱情的呢？自己爲什麽不想去的時候，又支支吾吾，不肯明説呢？Emre確是有問我去他們家合不合适的呀。想得自己好像很不是人似的。
憋到中午，終于和Emre坦白，告訴他其實中國人是很複雜的，接受別人的邀請，尤其是陌生人的邀請，還要對對方考察一番。如果日子沒有講定，很有可能其實就是不想去……
好在，Emre沒有生氣。倒是告訴我，其實土耳其人見到陌生人，通常都會很熱情地邀請對方去家裏坐坐。
下午Emre藉口幫我整宿舍上網的事，給我們請了一個假，很早就帶我離開了TOBB。（這件事我一直不是很舒服，有種負罪感，因爲Emre告假之前，也沒有和我商量；同我離開之後，我才發現他也沒有想幫我整上網的事。他只是想帶我參觀他的大學和家。）
TOBB-ETU位于市中心西北面，長途汽車站AŞTİ附近，面積不大，只有兩棟樓。四年前建成，設施挺齊全，據説師資也不錯，又有TOBB這個半官方的大機構坐鎮，在Ankara也算是個值得信賴的大學了。
Emre的家離大學不遠，其實是和別人合租的一套公寓房。四個人都在TOBB-ETU讀書。Emre和他弟弟Murat都是大三，多工商管理的，Beysin和Yusuf是讀大學預備班（在TOBB-ETU，進入專業課學習前一年要完成一年的英語語言學習，因爲在土耳其通常英語從小學四年級上到中學四年級，中學的最後兩年是沒有英語課的，但是TOBB-ETU是少數幾所用英語教學的大學）。房間挺大，三室一厛，廁所與衛生間採用了土耳其傳統的分隔式，還有一個廚房。因爲Murat和我一樣，都很喜歡社會學和政治學，所以在客廳裏，我們聊了很久關於政治的東西。從美國到中國，從世界到地區。Murat問我西藏問題，我問他們對於近期大學頭巾禁令風波的看法。
晚上在Emre家裏吃飯。他們四個學生平時是輪流做飯的，今天因爲我來做客，Emre幫他弟弟一起做，讓我坐在一旁觀看，還說客人要招待好，不能讓客人幫手做飯。晚飯時席地而坐的（地上有地毯，再地毯上鋪報紙），因爲沒有合適的桌子，也因爲Emre本身不喜歡做桌子。有西紅柿、黃瓜、炒米粉、茄汁土豆、土耳其餃子、湯、麵包、酸奶和可樂。我想應該在當地都算是很豐盛了。邊吃邊看球賽。土耳其人喜愛足球是出了名的，把足球當作人生的一大樂趣。Murat在看球時，發現解説有幾個地方說錯了，便生氣地說：“不知道就不要做解説了！”席間，Beysin還邀請我下星期和他們踢球，要不是我不會踢球，説不定我下個星期可以和他們有一個美好的下午。晚上我們還吃了Baklava（千層酥餅）——土耳其的很多甜點都是非常甜、膩的。
夜晚就睡在了Emre的房間，而他卻和他弟弟、Yusuf和睡一間房了。

2008年6月11日-6月13日
這三日的生活每天有一個主題：了解土耳其、伊斯蘭；準備周末旅行；新希望。
和Emre的關係一直很好，他是一個挺虔誠的伊斯蘭教徒，對土耳其國内的很多事情也有自己的見解。以前在港大的時候聼”Islamic Perspective”課的時候，對於伊斯蘭教的認識只是停在表面，和別人的語言中，而現在，則是真正面對了真實的伊斯蘭。確實，伊斯蘭作爲一種宗教，原本並沒有殺戮、恐怖的含義在内。真正的伊斯蘭教徒也不視那些進行殺戮、恐怖活動的人為真正的穆斯林。而在我們的時代，將一個宗教標簽化，不少人將伊斯蘭認爲是恐怖的宗教，將穆斯林當作是恐怖分子，實在是時代的可悲。即便是在伊拉克的遜尼派、什葉派之爭，在某种程度上也不完全是宗教的問題。兩派有分歧，古以有之，但是並非總是有如此的衝突的。
週四自己準備周末的旅行，Emre給了很多建議。雖然Lonely Planet上有很多信息，不過因爲不夠時間從頭到尾的看，有人提一些好的建議，會使該書的使用變得方便、實用許多。Emre中午還同我一起去買車票，實在是關心備至。
今天確實是一個充滿新希望的一天。雖然依然沒有工作，但是下午參加了部門的一個party才知道原來這個星期因爲我們的manager調走了，新manager沒上任，所以才沒什麽工作，下個星期應該會好一些。而聚會則是為新manager接風，為另一位同事過生日（原來土耳其人生日蛋糕上除了蠟燭，還會插焰火棒！）聚會完，遇見Ms. Karaloglu，和她無意中聊起周末去Konya旅行的計劃，她非常熱情地向我介紹她以前的一個Konya來的intern，並聯係她讓她明天接待我。
回到寢室，才知道我的同房今天也入住了。是一個美國exchange回來的土耳其人，和他聊了一小會兒，他便到同學那裏開party去了。雖然每個星期，他可能不會回來住很多日子，但應該都會同我生活的很開心。
晚上，Mustafa的同房Fatin和Mustafa一起來看我。原來他從英國exchange回來。他說很能理解我們exchange的處境。有什麽問題讓我只管找他。
今天真是開心，似乎在土耳其的生活一下子充滿了新的希望。

2008年6月14日
周末終于來臨，我踏上了前往Konya的旅程。這一次的旅程是伊斯蘭之旅，探尋土耳其境内最爲神秘、也相對較爲保守的伊斯蘭傳統勝地：Konya。該城是土耳其第六大城市，因爲這裡是Seljuk empire（塞爾柱帝國）的發源地，並安葬著偉大的Mevlana（梅烏拉那）而聞名。
Ms Birsen去年的實習生Adiya在Konya的長途汽車站(Otogar)等我。她很熱情的向我介紹Konya的一些基本概況，並帶我去她家吃用餐。那是一大家子，她父母、兩對叔父叔母以及她的外祖母都住在那裏。他們家有一個大花園，我們剛到的時候就坐在花園裏有秋千的地方，品嘗她叔母和幾個孩子搖晃門前大樹落下的那些熟透了的dut（桑果）。那些桑果很甜美，不過吃完以後手上全是紫色的汁液，洗也洗不掉。Adiya的母親為我們做了早餐，和Adiya的表弟和親弟弟聊得很快樂。
Adiya帶我前往參觀Mevlana Museum。正如evlana的名言：“來吧，不管你是誰，/就算你可能是/一個無信仰的人、一個異教徒或一個拜火教教徒，來吧。/我們不會讓人失望。/吉市你已經違背/你懺悔一百次的誓言，來吧。”每年都有大量遊客前來參觀。在這裡，那些穆斯林祈求真主的保佑使得他們如願以償。
在博物館可以看到Mevlana和他的兒子Veled蘇丹的棺材，而博物館周圍無數的棺材、墓碑則清晰表明人們對Mevlana的景仰。在博物館，還可以看到Dervish（旋轉托鉢僧）的生活和辦公場景模擬。
從Mevlana博物館出來，我們參觀了Koyunoğlu博物館和İnce Minare修道院。前者是一個私人博物館，零亂的存放了各種不同的展品，從化石、出土文物，到土耳其錢幣、Konya老照片，甚至還有一些動物標本。但是這裡的東西和Konya人的生活和文化息息相關，還是值得掃上一眼。可惜前去的人是非常地少。後者則是木器和石雕博物館，在那裏你可以看到Seljuk empire的很多木雕和石雕。那個雙頭鷹的雕刻會使你恍然大悟，原來Konya的市標圖案就來自于這個塞爾柱文化的產物。還有一對天使石刻，明顯是中國人的造型（有書籍說是蒙古人，不過我覺得也很想漢人），非常有趣。但是在我眼中，其實那裏的屋頂花紋和大門妝飾花紋可能比那些展品更有趣。每一個展廳的屋頂都呈現不同的圖案，而這些圖案使人暈眩，一圈圈、一層層，富有神秘色彩。而博物館的宣禮塔則在20世紀初被一次閃電劈掉了一半。
Konya最富特色的是城市到處是不同的Cami（清真寺）。從Alaaddin Camii到Şemsi Tebrizi Camii，甚至有見到把警察局建成清真寺的造型。或者也許是吧一個小清真寺改造成了一個警察局？這些清真寺的都非常有特色，但是我得經驗是，如果再土耳其下午透射一切的強烈陽光下，在好的清真寺也難免流于普通，難於有明暗的光線對比和神祕感。但是在晚飯后的夕陽下，你的照片會變得非常有韻味。（土耳其夏季的白晝很長，夏令時的晚上七八點鐘依然能見到夕陽，有足夠時間瀏覽一些清真寺並拍照。）
夜晚，懷著崇敬的心情前去看著名的Sema（旋轉托鉢僧儀式）——自從去年的梅夫拉那節之後，每星期六在Konya Kültür Merkezi（Konya文化廣場）都有免費演出。早前就聼人說那時一個很無聊、不很精彩的節目。但是我想，你觀看Sema的時候一定要記住這是一個宗教儀式，那些Sema Zen（旋轉托鉢僧，自從Atatürk認爲Dervish阻礙了土耳其的發展，下了禁令之後，即使因爲保護文化遺產而留存旋轉托鉢僧已失去了在奧斯曼帝國的政治地位，因爲也不再被稱爲Dervish，而改稱Sema Zen）不是在表演，而是從儀式中使自己同真主阿拉有更深層次的結合。那些Sema Zen在旋轉時確實如同一朵朵白色的鮮花盛開，他們是將自己深深地奉獻給了真主。在我觀看的表演中，還有幾個孩子，其中一個看上其可能只有不到十嵗。雖然現在的公開Sema大多只是一種表演，但是如果讓一個十嵗的孩子參與到這樣的表演中，可見其父母對於他的期望、對於真主的敬愛和對於教派的深信不疑。宗教對於人的影響（有時也許是束縛）如此之大——也無怪乎Atatürk當時覺得Dervish的保守會阻礙現代土耳其的發展了。

2008年6月15日
總體來説，遊覽Konya並不需要兩天的時間。集中的話，一天就夠了。所以今天我獨自前往Sille，Konya附近的一個小村莊。那裏有兩座小教堂。其中一座是圓頂的拜占庭教堂Ayaelena Kilisesi（聖海倫教堂），是君士坦丁大帝的母親創建的，20世紀被當作了清真寺來使用。粗粗看，教堂並不起眼，主要是未經雕琢的石塊砌成，也不宏偉高大，但是卻可在那粗糙的外墻上找到一些精細雕琢的石塊，呈現比較明顯的基督教文明特徵。
在Sille的會是非常短暫的，儅你登上Küçük Kilese（小教堂）附近的山頭，眺望周圍的依山而建的鎮上的房屋，和一些特殊的山洞，在Sille的旅程也就差不多結束了。
但事實上，沿著Sille向山的深處進發，依然可以看到連綿的山丘。行十多分鈡左右，還有Sille的野營場所。繼續向深處行，如果運氣好，有人願意搭載你，你可以迅速的到達下一個村莊。
下一個村莊据Sille大約五公里左右，那個村莊有好幾戶人家正在建造新房；在那兒，一戶人家邀請和喝恰伊茶(Çay)。在我返回Sille途中，那戶人家的男主人開車追上我，並邀請我前往他在Konya的制鞋作坊參觀。
該制鞋作坊位于Konya的鞋城Aykent Ayakkabıcılar Sitesi，幾乎全部是清一色的手工小作坊。每個作坊都有自己的牌子，不少鞋會被運到中國再處理、加工。參觀男主人Osman Çalışır的制鞋作坊時，感覺就像是溫州人早期的那種私人企業一樣。在工廠坐到了下午，幫他搬運貨物，還有機會騎自行車在謝城兜風！下午由他把我送往Otogar（長途汽車站），自己去Samsung送貨去了。
回到Ankara已是晚上八點半。路人指點坐dolmuş（小巴）囘Bilkent University，不過車子只經過Bilkent鎮，並不到大學，害得我自己負重前進，大約花了一個多小時才回到宿舍。不過倒是是我更爲熟悉Bilkent周圍的交通道路了。

土耳其之旅（一）

2008-09-06T07:29:00.002+08:00

2008年6月6日
從昨天深夜十一時（香港時間）飛機起飛到早晨六時（土耳其時間）飛抵Istanbul，旅程是很新奇又愉快的。乘坐土耳其航空公司的航班，空少個個英俊瀟灑，空姐各個年輕貌美，旅途中又有兩次美食供應，全程有自助娛樂系統，可以看電影、玩遊戲，很是愜意。
這次搭載航班有一個很好的鄰座，Alex。聽説他是格魯吉亞人(Georgian)，知道Georgia和Russia的關係素來不好，我就提到一句：Georgian uses a different language from Russia, right? 果然，Alex很自豪的說：Yes, we use Georgian. We are not Russian. 我立刻暫時閉口不談政治，準備熟悉些后再討論。一路上Alex對我非常友善，問了我很多問題。我們探討了中國大陸、香港的物價差異（他在韓國、上海做生意，這次是剛從上海飛到香港休假，準備經Istanbul回國），也談到了各自的家庭和我前往Turkey的ILOP項目。第一次餐飯供應時，他又問了我一次名字，然後祈禱。他說他為我也祈禱了。飛到天上，離上帝就近了，所以他祈禱上帝保佑我們平安。因爲他知道我不信教，他還特意解釋，儅人的閲歷深了，慢慢地就會覺得神是存在的，你自然就會信了。他以前不信教，生活中有很多挫折和苦難，信教后，生活有了很大的改觀。現在他是一個有三個孩子的父親，今年32嵗。
在飛機上睡覺的經歷不是那麽好受，尤其是第一次。坐著睡，又有Alex肥胖的身軀佔去很大一部分座位空間，我的睡姿扭曲得令自己感到非常難受。所以每隔兩三個小時去一次廁所，緩解一下僵硬的肌肉。
在第二次餐飯結束后，我和Alex的話題也轉移到了政治上來。我非常想了解作爲一個Georgian，Alex對於Russia的看法。他向我解釋了Georgia和Russia之間在十八世紀簽訂的一個條約，Russia從此向Georgia提供武裝保護。但是Georgia本是保持著高度的獨立。但儅Russia不斷的干涉Georgia的内政，Georgian開始不再信任Russian，所以也就轉而希望加入EU，而在軍事力量上，Georgian指望NATO。Russia之所以不願放棄Georgia，是因爲Georgia的特殊地理位置，位于歐亞之間，又是亞洲石油管道通往歐洲的必經之路，對Russia來説實在是戰略要地。
下了飛機，Alex給了我張名片，我們拍了照。他要我發郵件寄給他，又說他會在之後開車經過Ankara來探望我，並準備送我一瓶Georgia產的紅酒（這大約是因爲之前我一直沒有明確答應他前往Georgia，參觀他的家，他想出來的替代方式）。
抵達Ankara之後，發現除了Atatürk之外，Ankara大部分地方視野都十分開闊。從機場接我的司機Tumus基本不會說英語，但是我們在車上用運動和音樂建立了非常友好的關係。之後他還帶我去換Yeni Türk Lirası，對我非常友好。
今天在TOBB認識的另外兩個比較重要的同事就是Burak和Hılal。前者是Bilkent Üniversitesi的在讀學生，在TOBB實習，會說英語。他陪我吃了午餐，又和Tumus陪我去買Sim卡，囘宿舍。而後者在秘書処工作，會說一點兒英語。
我住在Bilkent Ünıversitesi Dorm 75 Z30，這裡的環境很好，房間佈置也非常簡約舒適。只不過幾乎所有的宿舍管理員都不會說英語。我的第一頓晚餐由於和宿舍小賣部的人完全無法溝通，所以一個YTL0.6的硬麵包收場，非常慘淡。
夜晚去了computer center，終于在土耳其上到網了，才發現由於土耳其文字母同英文有些差異，所以鍵盤也多出一些鍵來，有些特殊符號如@在土耳其鍵盤上就要用Alt(right)+Q來輸入。

2008年6月7日
早上起身，天氣涼颼颼的。決定去Ankara的老城Ulus去看一看。沒想到，才剛做校巴到Tunus，氣溫就開始回升。就這樣除去外套，在Anatolia的陽光下曬了一天，皮膚就被曬得通紅。土耳其的陽光果然名不虛傳。不過一天的旅途收穫頗多。
對於此次土耳其之行，除了實習之外的一大任務就是獨身徒步旅行。因此到達Ankara的第二天，我就決定沿著Atatürk Buvarıl這條南北貫通全城的主幹道自南向北前進，前往老城區Ulus。
步行的起點是靠近我工作的TOBB不遠的Tunus公交車站。一路上，發現Atatürk Buvarıl有四多：天橋多，Atatürk的雕像多，賣土耳其麵包(Ekmek)的多，公共噴泉多。因爲Atatürk Buvarıl為城市主幹道，所以比較寬闊，所以有很多橫跨Atatürk Buvarıl的天橋。Atatürk的雕像多也很正常，因爲作爲開國元勳，Atatürk至今在土耳其人心中仍然有非常重的象徵意義。而賣Ekmek的，都是用統一的小車，清晨去一般都寫著”3 Tane 1 YTL” (1新里拉3個)。我下午四點多在Ulus廣場附近向一個啞巴用1YTL買了4個，當時還以爲挺便宜，不過沒走多遠就發現這時候大多數都改爲”4 Tane 1 YTL” ，最誇張的我有看到”7 Tane 1 YTL”！也許是因爲土耳其的夏天太熱，沿著Atatürk Buvarıl，一路上可以見到很多公共開放的噴泉，在炎熱的夏日午後走在大街上，這些噴泉給與人們非常必要的清涼。
剛剛走到Opera House，進入Ulus的地界，我就離開Atatürk Buvarıl去尋找一個個散落在舊城區的古跡。由於舊城區改造，以及Lonely planet上的地圖對於Ulus的街道標註的不夠詳細，我已進入Ulus就差不多迷失了方向。而Ulus的居民似乎也對他們這個地區的古跡不夠了解，每當我問路時，總是一群人討論良久，結果還是給出一個和上一群人完全不同的方向。不過在Hasırcılar Sk上遇到的兩個會說“你好”的家具店店員，在İçki Kötülüklerin Anasıdır附近的幾個談論時事新聞的男人和一個誤以爲我是日本人的男子（之後才發現，不少土耳其人都以爲我是日本人，不知是不是中國來土耳其的簽證太難簽，中國旅行者很少的緣故）讓我比較順利地找到了Arslanhane Camii這個Ankara境内歷史最有悠久的清真寺。不過如果不是如此，我也不會之後被沉痛地被“騙”走20YTL。
在參觀完Arslanhane Camii，一群一群的土耳其孩子嚷著要我拍照。頭兩群孩子拍完照興高采烈地走了，第三群孩子中的一個追上來比劃著，要帶我前去城堡參觀，之後又有兩個孩子一起加入。有當地人帶路果然就是不一樣，速度一下子提高了不少。很快就到了山頂的一個城堡，那裏正在舉行城堡節(Ankara Kalesi Festivaline Foşgeldiniz)。在城堡上，整個Ankara的景色盡收眼底，這個地方遊人卻不多，真是風光無限好，只是無人識。
他們問我吃不吃冰淇淋，我想，小孩子陪了我那麽一會兒，我也該獎勵一下他們，於是便跟他們去了附近的一家咖啡店，進了門，才感覺有點怪，他們和老闆娘打招呼，說有遊客來了（visitor一詞，我還是挺得懂的），上了菜譜更是恐怖，正常的土耳其餐館主食也就3-4YTL，這裡可都是20YTL左右。幾個小孩子這時候讓這要7YTL的冰淇淋，一人一份，那就是28YTL，真是天價。最後我提出了兩人買一份的建議，就此花了14YTL。我們選了一個靠窗俯瞰Ankara的座位，他們用蹩腳的英語問我喜不喜歡足球，有告訴我自己在那裏上學。吃完了冰淇淋，付了帳，他們竟又提出要給他們錢。我想，那麽也應該吧，就往口袋裏摸硬幣。沒想到，他們竟然指指我的錢包，要10YTL! 天哪，這是搶劫啊！我的態度不得不強硬了一點點，討價還價，給了6YTL，對我來説這20YTL已經是我的忍受極限了。沒想到，他們便一路同我磨，直到我出了城堡還專程追上來，用不成句的英語說:”You and me, 5 YTL.”這些土耳其小孩的形象在我心裏徹底盡毀了。和他們的父輩們相比，他們繼承了熱情的一面，可惜卻學會了巧取豪奪。
離開了城堡節，沿著Hisarparkı Cad向上爬，看過了一処古羅馬劇院遺址和另一座城堡。在城堡的頂端，讓一位穆斯林大嬸幫我拍照。她是我唯一在附近看到的人，結果者大約是大嬸第一次用照相機，技術實在不行，怎麽都拍不到城堡的頂端。
之後前往拜訪了Hacı Bayram Camii。這是一座非常有名的清真寺，在Ankara地位舉足輕重。據説Byram是一位穆斯林“聖徒”，在大約1400年建立了Bayramiye苦行教派。清真寺開放的小小區域有一大五小六個棺材。所有進入該清真寺的人都虔誠的作著禱告。
在Hacı Bayram Camii遇見了一群大陸來Istanbul出差的人，和他們一起又前往了Ulus廣場看Atatürk的起碼雕像和Jüryanus Sütunu（尤利安石柱）。之後便沿著Atatürl Bulvarı向南囘走。本想在Gençlik Parkı享受俄式茶飲，不過那裏正在進行改造，茶座沒有了。於是便在臨近的Cumhuriyet Parkı享受一下Ankara下午五點的陽光，結果引來一群群土耳其人注視的目光。

2008年6月8日
昨天下午，發現對門住著人，就去問在宿舍洗衣服的事。沒想到，他主動來我房間串門。他叫Mustafa，是和國父Atatürk一個名字，不知道父母起名字時就取這個意義。雖然他的英語不算太好，但至少我們是溝通到了。
從他口中知道之前Ankara有嚴重的缺水問題，好在今年從附近的河流引水過來，才緩解了供水緊缺。我們有討論了Constitution Court反對總理提出的取消大學婦女頭巾禁令的風波。11人的Constitution Court反對這項提議，非常不符合邏輯，完全是出於政治上推翻執政黨AK的考慮。當然，他說北京這座城市，之前完全沒有聽到過，完全是今年辦奧運，才出了名，倒是上海歷來有些名氣。看來上海在世界上還是歷來有些地位的。
今天原本想休息一下，不過最後還是決定不要浪費時間，出去轉轉。和Mustafa吃完他媽媽做的一些早點之後，我就決定前往Anıt Kabir（國父紀念陵園）。同樣是從Tunus Cad出發，到達Atatürk Meydanı沿著İsmet İnönü Bulvarı向西走，這才發現，這一帶全部是軍事禁區。海陸空軍的總部就在兩旁擺列著。沿途可以看到各式各樣象徵土耳其人民對Atatürk表示崇拜的雕塑，很多雕塑讓人想起了工農兵時代的中國雕塑。不過就算這些雕像在吸引你，也千萬不要拍照。拍照很容易被爲數不少的荷槍實彈的衛兵發現，他們會及時制止你的。
只有進入了Anıt Kabir，你才會真正了解到土耳其人民對於這位國家元勳的敬愛。靈柩擺放的地方如同古羅馬祭祀的神殿般，莊嚴肅穆。而Atatürk Müze則陳列了Mustafa生前使用過的器具、衣物、藏書。但是真正令人激情澎湃的，恐怕是對於土耳其近代史的大量畫像成列和音響配合。簡而言之，就是土耳其的英雄人民面對英法軍隊，在第一次世界大戰中奮力保衛家園（不再提及土耳其選擇了德國作爲夥伴），而又在Atatürk的帶領下英勇地抵抗希臘侵略者，團結一致，取得了土耳其獨立和自由，將土耳其建立成一個自由、強大的國度。——這段描述，會不會讓你感受到什麽呢？是不是很像我們國家呢？我親眼見到，博物館解説激情澎湃、滿懷憤怒地向一群看上去只有小學一二年級的小朋友揭露希臘人的惡行。——愛國主義教育在土耳其也是一樣的。現在很多人對愛國主義教育很不屑。叫我說，愛國主義教育，至少在當今世界上仍然是一種必不可少的團結民心、消化民族内部矛盾的重要方式。其本身沒有錯，要樹立正確的歷史觀，不了解自己的國家，對自己的國家、民族沒有感情不行。只不過，在愛國主義教育之外，也要給與人民空間去自己思考。
下午去了Ankara最大的清真寺，Kocatepe Camii。在下午四點四十左右進入清真寺，在那裏一直逗留到五點的祈禱儀式結束。我靜靜地坐在清真寺裏，默默地看著高高地穹頂，沒有神像，因爲伊斯蘭教不是對人崇拜的教。人們陸陸續續地從清真寺外走來，個個顯得非常地平靜。在沒有開始祈禱前，他們坐在那裏，靜靜地聼長老念誦經文。開始祈禱時，一個個走到清真寺的前端，聚集，根據長老的指示虔誠地向麥加方向拜謁，用心去向真主禱告。請寬恕我沒有遵守遊客須知，沒有在他們禱告時離開清真寺，我只是站在清真寺的邊緣，看著他們禱告，之後便是自己的拜謁。身邊一群土耳其小孩在一邊嬉戲，不知是否是笑我動作不標準；幾個晚到的穆斯林，看看我，也沒有趕我走，或許他們看出我不是一般意義的遊客吧。我拜謁，也是在學習和體會什麽是穆斯林，感受他們拜謁真主的虔誠。

Series of "土耳其之旅"

2008-09-06T07:23:00.003+08:00

I used to put English articles on this website only. However, I decided to put some Chinese articles here, since they are also important about what I thinks and what I experience. These articles may not describe economical or political issues directly. However, they reflects some economical or political problems.

Note:
This edition is a little bit different from others that I've posted on facebook and xiaonei. I try to pick up some of the diaries rather than all of them.

Religion, Secularism & Politics

2008-06-11T22:44:00.000+08:00

The Constitutional Court of Turkey agreed to consider a case calling for the banning of the ruling Justice and Development Party (AK Party) and for the prime minister to be barred from office. The prosecutor believes that the AK Party is trying to promote the religion into the secular life. One of the evidence is that AK Party tries to ease the strict ban on the wearing of headscarves in universities.
It is a very interesting case. In Turkey, the bureaucrats want a secular society. As a result, they are quite sensitive towards any move towards a religious life. That is not wrong per se. On the other hands, there are huge amounts of people who hope to keep their religion in life. Most people accept that they at least should have the right to keep religion in their personal life, which is widely accepted by the criterion of the modern civilization.
The problem lies in the logic that accuses the act to ease the ban on headscarves in universities as a kind of mixing religion with secular life. The university is a public place, but it does not mean that everything related to the university is a public issue. Among those issues, wearing is of course a kind of private thing. Even if someone may use the crisis when Prince Harry wore Nazi costume several years ago to argue that wearing may become a public issue. The difference is that Harry’s case is immoral according to the standard of modern civilization, but the latter has no such problem. “What is the difference between having headscarves in shops or on streets and at a university?” Hannes Swoboda, vice chairman of the Socialist group in the European Parliament commented.
It would be rather confusing if the right to wear headscarves is deprived, how can we understand the freedom of religion in modern world?
The decision of the Constitutional Court of Turkey is thus quite political. The bureaucrats in Turkey always have strong opposition towards religious politicians. Since 19070s, Turkey has shut at least four pro-Islamic parties. Among them are army and a lot of judges. The crisis has lasted for months. The final decision of the Constitutional Court of Turkey this time may become a decisive step which influences the entry of EU and the international trust towards Turkish government.

The Rules and Arts of Protests

2008-05-03T23:37:00.001+08:00

There were protests yesterday. Is it something surprising? It is at least not to me. Many media had reported the possible protests in advance. I was well informed of that.

However, the focus of the protests was not on the content of the protests per se. Most of the discussions fell on the topic of how the protesters were treated. This is also quite reasonable since freedom of speech and demonstration become two critical indices of democracy of society.

This short essay is not trying to comment on particular events happened these days, but is trying to illustrate the acceptance of protests in my ideas.

Anyone with a little knowledge of liberalism or democracy may not easily deny the basic rights of freedom of speech and demonstration. However, the problem is how to protests? Are there any restrictions on protests?

The democratic society in my heart is a society properly protecting the fundamental freedom while reconciling conflicts in some ways. On one hand, protecting the fundamental freedom is important since this is what makes a civilized society differ from an uncivilized one. However, reconciling conflicts is also important. To make sure that the interest of the majority population is protected, the certain actions from the minorities or individuals should be advised to be conducted according to certain rules and regulations. That is the basic spirit of the law. The law by nature is not restricting people’s rights, but to guide a proper behavior of individuals to enjoy their own rights without interfering in the rights of other people.

As a result, the right of protests should be respected under the conditions of proper time and proper manners. However, the interpretation of proper time and proper manners differs at least at three aspects.

For the protesters, the effect of the protests is usually upheld firmly. How to get the attention and how to achieve their aim of propaganda is what they concern most.

For the people who might be interfered by the protesters (if the protests interrupt their work, influence their ordinary life or so), the biggest wish might be getting rid of the disturbance. They might have expectations on the government.

For the government, a proper attitude should be a check on the manner of the protesters and the protest, rather than the context of the protest. The reason behind is that the government probably may not be able to deter a protest due to the principle of respecting the freedom of speech and demonstration. However, to protect both parties, the protesters and the other people influenced, the government has the responsibility to make sure the protests are well organized and minimize the impact of influencing the public interest.

Up to now, the discussion hasn’t touched a very important word: tolerance. That is the key element that influences the degree of the definition of “proper manner”. If the other people who have been influenced by the protesters have sufficient tolerance, then there is still possibility for the protesters to test their “riskier” manners. If the public does not have a high level of tolerance, the most possible result is the conflict from the two groups and the government has to interfere to bear the public governance. To some extent, at least in the short run, it should be regarded as the endowment. But in the long run, the tolerance of society may change.

Tolerance per se is an abstract concept which may be quite difficult to measure. The way to illustrate the tolerance may also need to be discussed more carefully. However, when discussing a certain issue, the rights of different groups of people should be well protected. However, if some people try to make use of chances to express other issues, the rights of them may be sometimes judged by the tolerance level of others. The reason is directly related to the influence of the public life. When different groups of people are having different opinions on the same issue, the rights of freedom of speech justify the actions adopted by all parties. When a group of people are taking advantage of some public events to gain the attraction of a not direct relevant topic, they interfere in the public events first and thus their fate might only depend on the public tolerance finally.

In my opinion, there are rules for the protests. The protesters might acquire the arts of protests to enjoy their rights better in any kinds of society.

The Torch Relay (Update 1)

2008-05-03T00:28:00.002+08:00

After weeks of tour, the Olympic torch finally reached Hong Kong. I hesitated a little bit whether to go or not since I have final examinations next week. However, the continuous protests from westerners, Tibetans, and even some Chinese stimulated my interest to have a look at the reaction of the people in Hong Kong towards the Olympic Games and to seek the meaning of the torch relay myself.

I arrived at Admiralty at about 14:45. There were already groups of people. Some were in red and were distributing national flags, SAR flags, labels… anything related to Olympics. “Add oil, China!” – Several mainlanders holding high a piece of national flag yelled with excitement. Policemen were quite alert on the surroundings and tried to direct people into designated spectators’ area.

The waiting people were increasing tens and hundreds. I could already move in no way. Hundreds of people were waiting along the street and even on the over-bridge and towers. Each time a police-motorcycle passed, there were cheers from the crowds, “ka-ka”s from the shutters and waving of the flags.

Finally, the roads were nearly clear with few cars passing by. We knew that the torch was approaching. Advertisement cars, police-motorcycles, buses with bearers of the torch relay for other streets and finally, finally, the torch! The torch was coming!

Cheers, “ka-ka”s from the shutters and waving of the flags were everywhere. The bearer smiled and waved to everyone along the street. And a few seconds later, there were only the shadows of the police-motorcycle again.

Children were still waiting for something curious and funny. Parents and adults knew that what they wanted to see finished already. But maybe they could go to someplace else to see more. The crowds began to disperse. Most people entered the metro and got on the underground train to Wanchai – the destination of the torch relay.

I joined them, reviewing my feeling in the past several hours. I was excited for hours and then suddenly became very calm during that several seconds. To be frank, I could even feel a little bit disappointed since I was suddenly aware that the several seconds might not leave anything but just several photos.

Along my way to Wanchai, my passion returned and took photos of those red seas, the old, the young, the students, the workers, the posters and the advertisements. When I passed the Hennessy Road and saw the banner with four big Chinese characters, “ADD OIL, CHINA” (加油中國), my tears were lingering on my eyes!

The following several hours were occupied by crowds in my eyesight. Everywhere was red. Everywhere was excited. Why those people were so excited? Why those people were so exciting?

“Exciting”? Right! Now I came to understand. The torch relay per se may not be that exciting. Just a bearer with a nice torch, that’s it. How can it inspire such strong feeling and emotion? The people are exciting because of you. You are exciting because of others. This reciprocal procedure starts from just a slight push, a symbolic meaning of the secrete flame!

No matter how disturbing the protesters are, at least most people will be happy and excited. They are not excited about the ceremonies and relays per se. They are not excited about seeing the “famous” bearers as well. They are excited on the intrinsic nature of holding of the Olympic: a recognized rising motherland. As a result, that is also why those protesters are disturbing. They are spoiling the extrinsic appearance of the activities with no added value on the intrinsic nature. Thus they are doing something at least at the wrong time and in the wrong manner. (I should write another article to have a deeper check at it.)

There may be criticism that the atmosphere was maneuvered by the commercialized advertisements, posters and promotions. However, most people are always clever. They are enjoying their own excitement. The atmosphere won’t control them. It is just a brush of paint from some other people.

Turn to History before You Speak

2008-04-12T17:44:00.000+08:00

After the Tibet riot in March, the bombs from western government and media finally explode. However, the fuse here is not the Olympic Game to be held in Beijing. Those who propagate an independent Tibet have made good use of the torch rally outside China and created a perfect chance for the western government and media to put pressure on Chinese government on not merely the Tibet issue.
This is politics, rather than pure human rights, sovereignty or anything else. The reason I say so is based on the fact that facts and history are not upheld at the first position before those people who speak out or protest. The fame of the western “free” and “independent” media is to some extent destroyed by their biased report. Some obvious evidence is provided by www.anti-cnn.com.
It is also quite regretful that many people support the protest against the torch rally without a clear knowledge of the relationship between Olympic and politics and the history of the complex Tibet issue.
Although the governments of many countries recognize that Tibet is a part of China, many ordinary people do not really understand why. What more, the long history of the Dalai Lama’s biased propaganda and the distrust of the communist regime due to the historical reasons made the westerners stand out without really look into the issue.
The complexity of the Tibet problem is not something can be simply illustrated by the nationalism or the separatism. There are a lot more behind.
How to find out the truth? If you don’t trust the viewpoint from Chinese Han, then you should not trust the viewpoint from exiled Tibetans. The reason rises from the possible bias which you fear that might mislead you. Go back to read those third parties’ description and introduction about the issues happening at their own times.
I come across an article about the establishment of the present Gelug branch of the Tibetan Buddhism. Although it is in Chinese, it refers to a lot of authoritative western scholars’ research and experience. I would like to regard it as quite neutral. You can find it at
http://tw.myblog.yahoo.com/jw!_4qwYw6ZGQQ0SgBMthp8sw--/article?mid=2358&prev=2359&next=2357.
If you cannot read Chinese, I hope that you can try to read several books:
1. Tucci, Giuseppi, Tibetan Painted Scrolls, Libreria dello Sta to, Rome, 1949
2. Petech, Luciano, China and Tibet in the Early XVIIIth Century: History of the Establishment of Chinese Protectorate in Tibet, 2nd Ed. T'oung Pao Monographie I,E.J.Brill, Leiden 1972
3. Goldstein, Melvyn C. A History of Modern Tibet,University of California 1989
Do remember to turn to history before you speak.

A General Discussion on Exploitation of Foreign Domestic Workers (FDWs)

2008-03-24T21:53:00.001+08:00

The three-tier transfer of reproductive labour theory describes a general picture of demand and supply of domestic workers. The middle- and up-class women in rich countries employ foreign domestic workers to free themselves from household chores. The corresponding positions left in the home of those foreign domestic workers are filled by other poorer domestic workers living in the local area. In this demand and supply chain of reproductive labour, does exploitation exist?
This problem can be examined from two aspects: economic exploitation and non-economic exploitation.
The economic exploitation is mainly related to the compensation to the domestic workers. Whether they are paid sufficiently? It seems that those who work as hourly-paid domestic workers are local people. Here we just discuss those live-in domestic workers, among which many are foreign domestic workers.
Live-in domestic workers are perceived to work flexibly according to the demand of the employer. As a result, the blur of the working period may easily cause abnormal long-hour working. The problem rises from two reasons. When talking about the nature of the job, as a kind of reproductive worker, they are supposed to work in order to sustain the productive labour force. The underlining meaning is that usually they need to work when productive workers do not work. When talking about the time of the job, since the workers live in the employers’ family all around clock, it will be very difficult to divide working hour from personal leisure time.
Contract is thus important for those domestic workers under so many uncertainties. In Hong Kong, minimum wage policy is implemented to protect foreign domestic workers. However, minimum wage should be a reference reflecting average wage rate of a foreign domestic workers. Domestic workers should be compensated according to the type of families they are working for. For instance, the live-in domestic workers should be paid more if they are in attendance on a baby or an elderly people of incapacity. In reality, many contracts are formulized and signed without personalization. The minimum wage becomes a fixed wage for many foreign domestic workers.
To solve the problem, a strong bargaining power is important. However, the absence of the bargaining power is due to the flexible nature of the job. It will be difficult to unite different domestic workers to ask for a better wage. Therefore, many foreign domestic workers are under paid in this sense.
Apart from insufficient compensation, the non-economic exploitation also exists. The non-economic exploitation is usually related to the requirement of the domestic workers. The image of the domestic workers generally can be required as a maid. As a result, obedience is generally perceived as a basic quality for a qualified live-in domestic worker. To fit in the position, many foreign domestic workers have to follow whatever the employers ask them to do. The fixed time of getting-up and the designated place to sleep or sit are just a few examples. Sometimes, some requirement with a little humiliation may also be accepted as a demand from the master. The dignity of a human being is exploited to some extent.

Interesting Discovery from HK Projected Population (Update 1)

2008-02-02T02:13:00.000+08:00

Recently hall mates have been disturbed by the trend of the population proportion by sex in HKU and the real proportion of our hall. Girls seem to be much more than boys in the years to come. However, some of the students take the reference on the present “Hong Kong Resident Population by quinquennial age group, sex and whereabouts at reference moment” , 2006, and argue that since number of boys in the age group 15-19 and even 10-14 is much larger than that of girls, the future trend of proportion by sex will reverse in the university, i.e. the university will enroll more boys than girls.
The conclusion seems to be persuasive under the support of data. However, it is a common misinterpretation of data. The misinterpretation is not on whether the population of whole Hong Kong residents can be used to mimic the population in HKU is questionable per se. It is the static use of dynamic data in the centre of the question.
The assumption of the previous conclusion is that the proportion of residents by sex will not change as they grow over the years. This may be true to some of the age groups. However, in HK, it is definitely not the case for age group of 15-24.
From the same source, government of Hong Kong provided the “Projected mid-year population by age group and sex, 2007-2036” . A close check on those projected data, you can find that for all those years, age group of 15-19 has the property of more boys than girls. However, more girls are predicted in age group of 20-24 than boys. For instance, there will be 215.3 thousand boys and 207.1 thousand girls in age group 15-19. On the contrary, there will be 222.8 thousand boys and 278.0 thousand girls in age group of 20-24. After 5 years, in 2017, the numbers of boys and girls in age group 15-19 are 170.6 and 162.2 thousand separately. However, the numbers in age group 20-24 will be 212.1 and 272.8 thousand separately.
The above evidence shows that the population of age group 15-19 is not necessarily become the population of age group 20-24. The difference between boys and girls will change dramatically. A detailed look at the dramatic change is the sudden increase of female at age group 20-24.
A good explanation of this sudden increase can be found in “Hong Kong Resident Population by Duration of Residence in HK, Ethnicity, Quinquennial Age Group and Sex, 2006Hong Kong Resident Population by Duration of Residence in HK, Ethnicity, Quinquennial Age Group and Sex, 2006” (called New Resident Population in the following) which gives us the detailed number of new residents in HK by age group and sex. At the year 2006, the number of new residents who have lived in HK from 1 year to 5 years in age group 20-24 is 38282. Among these new residents, only 4797 are male and the rest 30000 plus are female. That means the new residents are mainly female which convert the difference of male and female at age group 14-19 5 years ago.
The more interesting thing can be found by decomposed the ethnicity of these new residents. It will help to proof the other falsification of assumption: the population of whole Hong Kong residents can be used to mimic the population in HKU.
Following are part of the data from “New Resident Population”:
Duration in HK <1year:
Age group/Sex Chinese Filipino Indonesian Japanese Nepalese Thai Indian
20 - 24 Male 1262 31 1 10 40 - 52
Female 1758 2923 6535 40 40 52 108
Both sexes 3020 2954 6536 50 80 52 160
Duration in HK from 1 to 2 years:
Age group/Sex Chinese Filipino Indonesian Japanese Nepalese Thai Indian
20 - 24 Male 505 11 10 21 40 - 30
Female 987 1513 5285 10 96 38 153
Both sexes 1492 1524 5295 31 136 38 183
Duration in HK from 2 to 3 years:
Age group/Sex Chinese Filipino Indonesian Japanese Nepalese Thai Indian
20 - 24 Male 524 14 30 10 42 - 20
Female 891 1034 3885 10 60 60 30
Both sexes 1415 1048 3915 20 102 60 50
Duration in HK from 3 to 4 years:
Age group/Sex Chinese Filipino Indonesian Japanese Nepalese Thai Indian
20 - 24 Male 684 - - - 21 - 1
Female 899 500 2642 - 104 55 10
Both sexes 1583 500 2642 - 125 55 11
Duration in HK from 4 to 5 years:
Age group/Sex Chinese Filipino Indonesian Japanese Nepalese Thai Indian
20 - 24 Male 851 10 - - 19 10 10
Female 1197 315 1397 - 111 23 5
Both sexes 2048 325 1397 - 130 33 15
It is quite clear that in most years new residents are from Indonesia, China and Philippines. Apart from some of the Chinese new residents who are pursuing bachelor degree in HK due to the agreement and policies between Mainland China and HKSAR, most of the new residents may not study in a university. The inflow of so many Indonesian and Philippines are mainly digested in the domestic service industry and restaurant industry. As a result, the population of whole Hong Kong residents cannot be used to mimic the population in HKU.

The Emerging Power of Pragmatism and Promise on Development (Update 1)

2007-12-09T01:30:00.000+08:00

The ROK president election is on the corner. It is reported that Mr. Lee Myung-bak, candidate from Grand National Party is leading the run with obvious advantages. The legend of the president candidate seems to give us many fruits of thoughts.
Mr. Lee comes from the bottom of society. He worked as a garbage collector to support his life and studies. After his graduation, he worked very hard and got the nickname of “bulldozer”. He became the CEO of Hyundai Engineering and Construction at the age of 36.
Mr. Lee is a pragmatic person and he calls himself a “can-do” leader which will make him the right person to take command of the South Korean economy. He really has shown his strong ability to transform a dream into reality. As an elected mayor of Seoul in 2002, he managed to accomplish the project to the buried Cheonggyecheon stream under the great pressure from all walks of life. He communicated with different groups and tried to persuade people into finding the beauty of future life after the project was finished. Finally he realized his dream with 1% possibility of success and brought a safe and beautiful natural stream and the traditional culture back to the citizens in Seoul. The success of the project shows Mr. Lee’s pragmatism and brings him much support from the grass-root society.
Promise on development also becomes an explanation for Mr. Lee’s high support. In contrast to the other two major candidates, Mr. Lee Hoi-chang and Chung Dong-young, Mr. Lee Myung-bak conveys the information for a better future for the somewhat stagnant nation under the disappointed leadership of current president Roh Moo-hyun. His engagement policy towards North Korea also based on the perspective that if North Korea can keep following the direction of No Nuclear and Opening-up, in ten years, South Korea can help their north brothers and sisters to reach the goal of US$3000 per capita income. The brilliant future presented by Mr. Lee surely brings him large support.
The preference showed from the Korean people brings a piece of vital information to today’s politicians: pragmatism and promise on development possess strong appeal and power. Compared to Mr. Lee Myun-bak, another candidate Mr. Lee Hoi-chang represents the old politicians who uphold strong ideology to insist a containment policy towards DPRK, while Mr. Chung dong-young seems to be lack of pragmatism. Neither of them can bring a signal of future development for the nation.
When people are voting for their president, they are not merely voting for the guy, but their life in a foreseeable future. It is not something easily interpreted as a trick of politicians. Although politicians can use different ways to make themselves quite appealing, the civil society will always try to pick out the one who is thinking about the life of the ordinary people and will act in the interest of the nation.
There are people complaining that people are always not selecting the best, but just eliminating the worst in the election. I should say that is due to the little differentiation between the candidates. If one candidate is obviously showing his/her true love for society rather his/her devotion to one stubborn ideology, he/she is bound to win. However, it is always the case that the candidates are too “political” to make them appealing to the voters even though they may be proud of their delicate decorations prepared for a long time.

The Witness of Two Solutions: Discussion on future economic development of East Asia

2007-11-24T11:33:00.000+08:00

I. Introduction

In the modern history, the development of global political pattern is led by the western world, especially by the United States. The omnipresence of the US, to a large extent, has shaped the contemporary power distribution in Asia ever since the Second World War. The penetration of the US influence was first achieved by the bilateral relationships between the US and its Asian partners. In the late 1980s and 1990s, the US became more active in Asia through the promotion of the multilateral relationships of some institutions under the name of Asia-Pacific region which is designed to lead Asian countries to the way of globalization. However, with the recent rise of nationalism, the failure of the international help for the Asian Financial Crisis (AFC) and some other factors, more and more Asian countries are trying to find the other way to supplement the deficiency of global solution. That way is Asians-only economic regionalism, i.e. to exclude the United States as a member of the institution. The most well-known institution established to achieve that goal is ASEAN Plus Three (APT) which includes most countries in East Asia.

Is Asians-only economic regionalism a feasible and desirable way for the future of Asia? Are the United States and those international institutions losing their influence in Asia? The article first examines Asia’s economic development before the 1997 Asian Financial Crisis. It then describes the economic regionalism after the AFC. The article concludes with a possible prospect of the future economic development of East Asia.

II. Asia’s economic development before the Asian Financial Crisis

Before the 1997 Asian Financial Crisis, Asia’s economic development always seeks help from the western world. There are many reasons for this kind of dependence on the US and US-supported international institutions.

For the region itself, East Asian nations are not under something which is obviously quite common, making it difficult to promote regionalization. In terms of geography, the size of territory and the reserve of natural resources are of great variety. The various degree and institutional form of democracy and non-democracy in the region makes interactions between countries more difficult than those with similar political structure. Sharp contrast can also be found in economic development level. This region includes the world’s second strongest economy, Japan, one of the world’s most vigorous economy, China, and the world’s poorest countries as Myanmar as well. This kind of diversity in nature gives rise to the disparity and unbalance of power in the region and makes relative power gains matter a lot. This may cause perennial struggle for power and plenty and make it difficult to form sincere cooperation among East Asian nations.[1] As a result, the Asians-only economic regionalism lacks common grounds and seems not quite favorable to many East Asian politicians.

Asians-only economic regionalism has also been hindered by strong nationalism among regional members. After the Second World War, Japan develops under a burden of history. Perception that Japan is by nature a militaristic and aggressive society is widely spread among victim countries in East Asia. Any behaviors or signs towards establishing stronger military forces, denial of history or visiting the Yasukuni Shrine may trigger waves of condemnation and protests.[2] The strongest reaction towards Japan’s potential provocation in the region comes from China and South Korea. Both countries have important roles in East Asia, and China’s influence in the region is sufficient to call for a different approach when Japan proposes an unfavorable suggestion for future regionalization.

In the past years, Sino-Japan relations always face conflicts and frictions. Territory dispute on the Diaoyu Islands/the Senkaku persists while recent disputes on the border line between the two countries in East China Sea due to its abundant natural resources add to rising tensions. Japan’s support to jointly research on and develop the regional TMD system despite strenuous Chinese objections also worsens the bilateral relations. Although the fastening of mutual trade partnerships have counterweighed some negative factors in the Sino-Japan relations, 50 percent of Chinese respondents in a 2002 poll indicating that they disliked Japan while pressure on the Japanese government from the grass roots to reduce the amount of foreign aid to China increased.[3]

The sophisticated economic diversity and political rivalry make it difficult for attempts to cooperate without outside forces. To fuel economic development, East Asian countries have gradually learned to seek for global solution with years of help from the US and the US-supported international institutions.

Ever since the end of the Second World War, the US has established strong bilateral relationships with almost all the important players located in the East Asia. Under the strong support of its political, economic and military power, the US becomes a very important factor which not only influences the political development in these countries, but also fuels and stabilizes the economic development in the region.

The US established partnership with Japan under the San Francisco Peace Treaty in September 1951, which enshrined America’s efforts to integrate Japan into a network of US Pacific alliances through a non-vindictive peace. Under this system, Japan and the US become “bilateral, highly asymmetric US security alliances”; Japan also gets huge economic benefits from the US under the “asymmetrical economic arrangements” through which Japan gets an open American market while it can protect its national industries by putting restrictions on foreign firms.[4] It was these favourable terms that created the miracle of the economic giant, especially in the 1980s.

With a quite similar background as Japan-US relationships, South Korea depends on the US a lot on its national security and economic development as well. The presence of the US military forces in South Korea balances the military threat from the North Korea, and the strong economic tie between South Korea and the US is a strong support for ROK’s economy. In 2005, the United States was Korea’s third-largest trading partner, second-largest export market, third-largest source of imports, and its largest supplier of foreign direct investment.[5] The most important achievement in the economic field between the two countries is the reach of the world’s largest bilateral free trade agreement on April 2nd, 2007.[6]

As the largest country in the region, China also has its important place in the US diplomatic strategic plan. Generally speaking, Sino-American relations have largely relied on burgeoning economic ties against tensions on political and security issues. China is especially dependent on the US as an exporter market. Trade with the US represented 23.7 percent of total trade for China in 2002. The US ranks as China’s top trading partner. The US is also China’s leading partner as a source of foreign direct investment (FDI). It contributes to 9.5 percent of China’s inward FDI grew in 2001.[7]

Under the influence of the US promotion of free trade and globalization, especially after 1980s, East Asian countries began to understand more about globalization. The 1980s and 1990s witness their entries into international institutions and cooperation with global players.

In 1989, APEC was established in response to the growing interdependence among Asia-Pacific economies and to the need to advance Asia-Pacific economic dynamism and sense of community. Many East Asian countries become the founding members of the APEC forum, such as Japan, the Republic of Korea, Thailand, Indonesia, and so on.[8]

Even China gradually opens its door and finds its place in the international institutions after years of close. Chinese politicians have formed some kind of belief in globalization that it will benefit China a lot through participation in the international institutions. This participation will help China share the achievement of the world economic development and raise the recognition of China from other countries and international institutions. The entry of APEC in 1991, WTO in 2001 all shows China’s willingness to obey the international rules and behave as a responsible member of the international community.

To give an overall view, before the Asian Financial Crisis in 1997, East Asia seeks global solutions to fuel its economic growth. The US and US-supported international institutions play very important role in this course.

III. The Development of Economic Regionalism

However, the AFC serves as a turning point of the approach for East Asia to promote and stabilize its economic development. Politicians in East Asian countries find that the globalization brings not only economic booming in East Asia, but high risk of financial attack as well. “National economic security cannot always be achieved unilaterally or even bilaterally; in some cases, it may require de facto multilateral coordination or even formal cooperation.”[9] What’s more, the interest of East Asia in the global economy is not fairly and well represented in the existing international institutions. The feelings were proved when western countries in the International Monetary Fund (IMF) deeply intervened the economic policymaking of the region’s crisis-hit countries. As a result, AFC gives birth to ASEAN Plus Three (APT) which becomes one way out for the purpose of counterweighing the global solutions to economic development in East Asia.[10]

For East Asian countries, global solution has brought them tremendous benefit. Interdependence between east world and western world makes countries one economy. However, liberalism cannot fully illustrate the picture of the crisis. When in danger, the international institutions as representatives of the western world will provide help only on strict terms and will easily take over the control of the national economy to protect their own interest. This may even be practiced at the cost of the victim county’s whole social system to just stabilize the currency. Thus the role of APT is not an institution to make East Asia become totally independent, but as a measure to promote the regional cooperation and work as a backup and supplement for the region in case of the fail of the global solution to Asia’s economic development. As a result, the policies made by APT are characterized by its tentative and gradual integration and various latent links to the international institutions.

Two economic and financial cooperation measures can be used to illustrate these two characteristics: the Chiang Mai Initiative (CMI) and Asian Bond Fund Initiative (ABFI).

“The CMI is designed to provide liquidity support for member countries that experience short-run balance-of-payment deficits, with the purpose of preventing an extreme crisis or systemic failure in a country and subsequent regional contagion.”[11] Started from 2000, the initial amounts involved under CMI were only $36.5 billion for a total of 16 bilateral currency swap arrangements concluded among APT. This number is quite insufficient compared to the amount of assistance required by Thailand alone was $17.2 billion. This arrangement will necessarily lead to the supplement from the IMF or other international financial institutions. In the May 2006, the amount of CMI is raised to $75 billion. The gradual raise of the CMI amount is due to the increase of mutual trust between member countries and strengthen its ability to reduce the dependence on an IMF or the US-determined solution to financial crisis in the region.[12]

However, the CMI does not mean an Asians-only solution. The initial CMI required its member countries drawing more than 10 percent from the funds in the CMI to accept an IMF conditionality. Even after the review of the IMF linkage with the CMI, IMF conditionality will still need to be accepted at 20 percent level. This linkage is especially supported by China and Japan despite some member countries’ opposition.[13] Those important players in the region know well that without the support from the well-established international institutions, the CMI will become fragile whenever there are conflicts between member countries. The loss of US support on a CMI excluding the US influence may also have negative impact on the bilateral relations between these countries and the US.

Asian Bond Fund Initiative (ABFI) is another example. Up to present, the size of the initiative increases from $1 billion initially to $2 billion and the investment has shifted from a basket of dollar denominated bonds issued by Asian sovereign or quasi-sovereign issuers in EMEAP economies to local-currency bonds. For this initiative, Asian leaders have placed their emphasis on the Asian-Bond-Eurobond linkage. Senior ranking financial officers both from Asia and Europe had their meeting in Singapore to discuss the interests and consolidated relations between EMEAP and the EURO-system.[14]

IV. Possible Prospect of the Future Economic Development of East Asia

The precious discussion gives a general view on the background and present development of Asian regionalism. As East Asian countries benefit a lot through globalization in the past, it will not immediately give up the attempt to be involved to share the global achievement even after the Asian Financial Crisis. However, the AFC do ask the Asian politicians to make a second thought on how to develop a healthier and more stable financial market for the benefit of the region, and the world as well. The supplementary measure adopted is economic regionalism.

Asians-only economic regionalism may not be a good direction without globalization at the same time since Asia faces challenges of economic diversity and political rivalry. However, it is also not safe to have global solution only to the future of Asia’s economic development. As a result, the 21st century witnesses the use of both solutions to fuel the economic growth in East Asia. For liberalists, they will be happy to see that the globalization and regionalization helps to deepen the interdependence between countries. But they cannot illustrate the disparity in the international institutions. For realists, their prediction of the power acquisition will still be considered even within the regional economic institution. However, cooperation has been and will be seen between East Asian countries. Hopefully, East Asia will march towards a more open and cooperative future under the help of both global and regional solutions.

Reference
[1]Kim, S. S. (2004). Northeast Asia in the Local-Regional-Global Nexus. S. S. Kim (Ed.), The International Relations of Northeast Asia (pp.4-19). Oxford: Rowman & Littlefield Publishers, Inc.
[2]Berger, T. (2004). Japan’s International Relations: The Political and Security Dimensions. S. S. Kim (Ed.), The International Relations of Northeast Asia (pp.139). Oxford: Rowman & Littlefield Publishers, Inc.
[3]Berger, T. (2004). Japan’s International Relations: The Political and Security Dimensions. S. S. Kim (Ed.), The International Relations of Northeast Asia (pp.154-155). Oxford: Rowman & Littlefield Publishers, Inc.
[4]Calder, K. E. (2004). U.S. Foreign Policy in Northeast Asia. In S. S. Kim (Ed.), The International Relations of Northeast Asia (pp. 226-227). Oxford: Rowman & Littlefield Publishers, Inc.
[5]Manyin, M. E (2006). South Korea-U.S. Economic Relations: Cooperation, Friction, and Prospects for a
Free Trade Agreement (FTA). Congressional Research Service. Retrieved Nov. 17th, 2007, from http://keia.org/4-Current/CRSFTA.pdf?sort=01&seq=20060124142516.
[6]Choe, S. H. (April 2nd, 2007). U.S. and South Korea reach free trade agreement. International Herald Tribune. Retrieved Nov. 17th, 2007, from http://www.iht.com/articles/2007/04/02/asia/fta.php.
[7]Moore, T. G. (2004). China’s International Relations: The Economic Dimension. S. S. Kim (Ed.), The International Relations of Northeast Asia (pp.115). Oxford: Rowman & Littlefield Publishers, Inc.
[8]A Brief History of APEC. Canada. Retrieved Nov. 17th, 2007, from http://www.dfait-maeci.gc.ca/canada-apec/media/history-en.asp.
[9]Moore, T. G. (2004). China’s International Relations: The Economic Dimension. S. S. Kim (Ed.), The International Relations of Northeast Asia (pp.126). Oxford: Rowman & Littlefield Publishers, Inc.
[10]-[14]Sohn, I. (2007). East Asia’s Counterweight Strategy: Asian Financial Cooperation and Evolving International Monetary Order. Intergovernmental Group of Twenty-Four on International Monetary Affairs and Development.

Kimberley Process Certification Scheme

2007-10-14T02:35:00.000+08:00

In May 2000, governments and the diamond industry gathered at Kimberley, South Africa to come up a way to stop the conflict diamonds, or “blood diamonds” which aroused much attention at that time. The solution they put forward is the Kimberley Process Certification Scheme to ensure that the purchases of diamonds in the participants do not contribute to fund violent conflicts and human rights abuses in their countries of origin.
The scheme is of good implication but may not achieve its goal efficiently due to some of the uncontrollable economic factors.
It is true that diamonds producer countries, especially those suffering rebellions, are much more willing to be involved in this scheme. The scheme helps to enhance the international recognition to the governments in these riotous countries. The goal to prevent those conflict diamonds from entering the mainstream diamond market will in principle help to weaken the financial support of the rebels.
However, the other side of the story may not be that encouraging. There may not be any incentive for importers to comply with the scheme. Actually, since the certification scheme is of “voluntary self-regulation”, the transparency and independent monitoring efforts can be questioned. Even if most of the governments participated in the Kimberley system try to comply with these rules, the lack of monitoring and inspections may still leave some loopholes for the black-market. Smugglers may still find ways to get their profit from these blood gems.

Is North Korea Gambling?

2007-09-19T02:33:00.000+08:00

North Korea is the focus of East Asia security for years. From many western people’s viewpoint, DPRK is always gambling on its nuclear programme. Many western people still cannot understand the logic of DPRK. One United States exchange student commented on yesterday’s International Relations of East Asia that he totally Kim Jung-il in DPRK does not use the money funding military programmes to fuel economic development.
However, what are the choices from which North Korea is able to choose? If you try to check the list of the bundles, not much can be used. But before that, a good estimation of the goal of DPRK should be made. Superficially, DPRK is to seek national security. Nevertheless, under the individual leadership of Kim Jung-il and the history of ruling labour party, it is not difficult to conclude that the North Korea authority wishes to keep the ruling of the communist regime.
If this is the goal, then what are the steps that DPRK can take?
Economic interdependence: Since DPRK is too small on the economic sense, even if it opens up, it is difficult for them to play a vital role in the international economic chain so as to sustain the function of the country.
International recognition: DPRK has not much leverage to win the international recognition. The present rivalry position towards the US makes it more difficult for other countries to build up normal relationship with it.
Military building (including trying to possess nuclear weapons): It seems to be the only way out. However, the possession of nuclear weapons for DPRK is just a way to deter the attempt to overthrow the communist regime of other countries, especially of the US. As a result, DPRK is balancing its way on the nuclear programme. It needs to go very carefully in order not to be destructed before its possession of the nuclear weapons.

The Past Catastrophe Becomes the Treasure

2007-07-29T21:57:00.000+08:00

31 years ago, in the early morning of July 28, 1976, one of most destructive earthquakes in 20th century took place in Tangshan, an industrial city in Hebei Province. It claimed more than 240 thousand lives and more than 160 thousand people were injured.

However, the severe catastrophe does not become the obstacle for re-development of the glorious city. It becomes the motivation and the treasure. After recovering from the earthquake in 1986, the city developed very quickly with the double GDP coming in 1988 and the fourfold GDP in 1994. In 2006, the tax revenue ranks 1st in Hebei Province and 19th in China.

Nevertheless, the best treasure is not just the motivation for development. It’s the ruins and the most important thing, the care of ordinary people from the heart of Tangshan’s officials.

After the earthquake, seven sites of the ruins have been kept and three becomes the national historical sites. What’s more, the Tangshan urban planning bureau is planning to build up a memorial park to memorize those who died in the catastrophe.

It’s common that the government builds memorial tower or similar things for national heroes in China. For the ordinary lives died in catastrophe in China, it may be the very few cases to have that kind of treatment. One of the famous memorial sites for those ordinary lives is for the dead in the Massacre of Nanjing.

It is a sign to show that some of China’s local government, at least Tangshan government is trying to show more care for the ordinary peoples’ life. The memorial park may not only be a place to remember the serious catastrophe, but be a reminder of future tasks of good civil-related projects. It symbolizes the respect for peoples’ livelihood.

The catastrophe is a nightmare, but it is also a kind of treasure for the followers to build a brilliant future.

The Lessons Learned from Zimbabwe (Update1)

2007-07-18T10:59:00.000+08:00

Probably Zimbabwe will never be forgotten by economists for its world famous hyperinflation and arbitrary restrictions. The fallen from the strongest economy in Africa to the weakest in the world alert people the importance of good governance and recognition of several important things.

Property rights are one of the important things that the president, Mr. Robert Mugabe denies for a long time. From expelling the white farmers to taking control of those private diamond mines, property rights become nothing but something can be easily stolen or robbed. Why people will attend to those things which they might lose at any time? (Read the article from Time and Bloomberg.)

The setting of the price is another thing that perhaps Mr. Mugabe has never learned from anyone who has a little knowledge of economics. The determinant of price is the relation between supply and demand rather than anything else. Again, when you find some policemen came to your store and told you that you might be arrested unless you cut your price of your goods under a certain price, those policemen were probably executing the order of Mr. Mugabe. (Read the article on Economist.)

The story in Zimbabwe is miserable. Hyperinflation reaches 3,700% as officially estimated, which may be actually higher. Millions of Zimbabweans flee the country mainly to South Africa. Those who are still working finds the money they earn provide nearly zero purchasing power in the black-market, since the stores, supermarkets have already had nothing left. However, those who have access to limited greenbacks at the official rate of 250 Zimbabwe dollars to 1 US dollar can make a killing by earning 250,000 Zimbabwe dollars for just one greenback. (Read the article on Economist.)

Anyway, Zimbabwe used to be strong and is used to the extremely poor states. The case is so famous that my macroeconomics lecture always put forward the case for us to discuss. Maybe, if anything fails, there is always one thing that can assure you of immortality called great mistakes.

Money, Time and Cost

2007-07-17T00:43:00.000+08:00

Time is money. Perhaps this is one of the most quoted proverbs. How much are you willing to pay for the time? HK$1,000? HK$1,000,000? Or countless?

Sometimes, maybe we are too naïve to believe time is valuable that we ignore the price we set for it at each different time.

I went to China Travel Service (Hong Kong) Limited to extend my passport last week. When I took the photo, waited for half an hour and was finally served, I was told that I came to the agent too early. My passport would go expire in August. But now it was only July. If I insisted to get it done on that day, the duration for extension was 2 years rather than 1 year and another $50 was needed. Well, if I came one month later, then I have to pay about $10 more for traffic fees and would wait for another half an hour and about one hour for traffic. $50 was a good deal, I thought. “I’d like to extend for 2 years then.” At that time, I was paying for time, $40 for saving about one and a half hours in the future. At that time, I was sure that the price I pay was much lower than my reservation price.

But what in hell is your reservation price? Really countless?

If the additional fee is $100, will I accept it? What about $500? What about $1,000?

Actually, I may probably reject the idea to continue the process before I reach the amount of $100. The price I set for time may probably be related to some other things, for example, the opportunity cost. Probably, I can earn $100 by working as a private tutor for one hour and a half. Then I would be just indifferent to the process if it only asks for $100. However, if the additional fee is $200, then I would just be willing to waste the time. If I don’t pay the fee, I only lost $100 equivalent of time; otherwise, I would pay $200!

In the traditional concepts, time is so valuable that it does not have a price. However, it does exist a price for exchange.

Rational Passion

2007-06-27T23:54:00.000+08:00

Can a rational person have great passion?

Known to be rational, economists usually seem to be lack of passion when they work. However, this illusion of mine was broken by the book, “Rational Passion: the Chinese architects in the international palace of economics”, recommended by Prof. Tao Zhigang this morning.

It is a book collecting the profiles and conversations with reporters of 16 famous Chinese economists. Why would Prof. Tao recommend this book rather than some other economics textbooks to broaden my knowledge of economics?

“It seems that you do not know those big names in Economics?” said Prof. Tao in the discussion this morning. Yes, I’m so ignorant of those economists and top development of economics. Learning economics for only two years at an introductory level, I aim more on the basic economic sense which need to be cultivated step by step. Before I entered university as a student majoring economics and finance, I even mistook economics for the calculation of money exchange. In the past two years, I began to know what economics really is, but I need to know more before I can go further.

Apart from Prof. Tao, I only have a little knowledge with Qian Yingyi and have heard the name of Bai Chong-en. I still have much to do before I can catch the development of economics.

My knowledge of Prof. Qian is also from the project I am doing under the instruction of Prof. Tao. I was recommended to read his paper “The Process of China’s Market Transition (1979-98): The Evolutionary, Historical, and Comparative Perspectives”. It gave me a clear view of the development of the market transition in China with a unexpected foundation in the early years of PRC to the current situation. It also first time reminded me the difference of planned economy between the former Soviet Union and China.

The profiles and conversations in the book give me a clearer picture of this Chinese economist and extend my understanding of China’s economic development from his paper to a much wider range.

As a Chinese, we have our advantages to review the development of China. We know much more about the culture and more details than foreigners. We also feel the real change and see the unsatisfactory issues in our life. That is the good resources of our knowledge on China’s development. However, it also brings some side effect. We are too familiar with the situation that we might underestimate some improvements without notice and regard some problems as unique ones of China.

Sometimes we may use too much concepts from western culture but ignore some practical issues. As a result, this may also bring pessimism. A good example is how to view political development without a western way of democracy. Actually, democracy is just one part of politics. In the western civilizations, they may put democracy as the base of the development. However, in an eastern culture, rule of law may play a more important role. That’s why we can see the present economic and social development under the improvement of rule of law. As a result, though the nominal political development has not been much touched as is defined as popular election, the real political development is already underway and have exerted its great power in China.

Specialization and Its Cost (Update2)

2007-06-19T02:12:00.000+08:00

In people’s mind, Shanxi Province is always associated with illegal collieries and brick kilns which hundreds of people have been killed or wounded due to explosions of gases, collapse of mines or tortures by the foremen and the owners. People and the Press are always angry with these phenomena but curious about the continuous happening of the serious cases. Has Shanxi fallen into a vicious cycle?

When the focuses are concentrated on the social, moral, or even political systems, the economic factor may be neglected.

How could economy make Shanxi fall into the vicious cycle of illegal collieries and brick kilns? Some people argue that it’s the fault of specialization. The abundant natural resources and cheap labour forces make Shanxi Province acquire the comparative advantages in producing coal and bricks. The more specialized Shanxi Province is, the more mono-form its economy takes. As a result, the pursuit for higher profit by trading these low value-added goods drives officials and local magnates to exploit those poor peasants and migrant workers.

It seems to be reasonable. However, the relationship between workers and owners of the mines and brick kilns is all about the story of exchange. This previous argument only covers the picture of one party in the exchange. The other half of the picture from the perspective of those workers is not mentioned.

Before we check the part story of those workers, let’s get a general view for the exchange process, specialization. In economists’ minds, specializations should bring a win-win situation for both parties participated in the trade. They will tell you the stories of a painter and a carpenter, or a country specialized in sea food production and a country producing agricultural products. In their cases, specialization makes both parties better off. If that’s true, then how can we explain those phenomena in Shanxi Province?

If we give a second thought on the stories economists present, we may find that both parties are equal in the legal status. Individuals exchange with individuals and countries with countries equally. The specialization is based on the fair trade as an assumption. In this sense, Shanxi Province is getting better economically through the exchange of coal and brinks with other provinces for the goods they need. However, the tragedy happens when there is inequality between the two parties. The tragedy happens in the relationship between the owners of the mines and brick kilns and the education-inadequate peasants and migrant workers.

Why is there inequality? Maybe the answer is the lack of choices. The aim of peasants and migrant workers is to survive and support their families. If there are any better choices for the peasants and migrant workers, they will flow out of the industry which might take their lives as a cost. Since there are no other choices, they take the risk of death to do the dangerous work.

Is it the specialization limits the choices of peasants and migrant workers? To some extent, it is. The limit of choices reflects the strict ranks of jobs. However, this is one of the results of the specialization. You use your comparative advantages to do the job fit you best. However, the fittest job may not be a highly-paid or even enough paid one. Actually, this is the cost of specialization society has to pay.

Some extreme liberalists may argue that those peasants and migrant workers are so illiterate or unskilled that they should only be granted those dangerous and low-paid jobs. However, we need to solve three questions. Is it their fault to be illiterate or unskilled? Should the government participate to help them out? If the government participate, will this increase the benefit of the whole society?

The first question is quite obvious. Most of those peasants and migrant workers are born in a poor family. The environment usually does not allow them to study or develop themselves. However, the family environment has nothing to do with the children bred in it. They have no choice. The illiterate and incompetence of those peasants and migrant workers are the tragedy of society. They are bearing the cost produced by society rather than the cost produced by themselves.

As a result, the cost should be shared by society. The responsibility obviously falls to the government. They play the role of auditor to check the cost and benefit between different actors in society and finally using taxes they collected to make the second distribution of wealth.

The government’s participation is not a bad thing at least for these cases. If we assume that the increase of wealth has the decreasing rate as the consumption of other goods, then it is quite clear that the second distribution of wealth using the money from the rich to help the poor may increase the total benefit of society as a whole.

That is to say, the government plays an important role in the equal exchange when specialization is inevitable. The government should compensate the peasants and workers the social cost they are bearing. A common way is to establish a good social security system and exercise welfare policies consistently.

As a result, it can be concluded roughly that specialization can bring benefit on the equal basis, but bring some negative impact when there is. However, if the government is weak and could not provide well social security system, the cost of specialization will be very obvious. If we extent our conclusion a bit further, we may find something more surprising. If there is no government (world government as for the international arena), the specialization (globalization as it is called) may bring great benefit only to those who are strong. The small and developing countries may suffer a lot as a victim billing the cost without any compensation.

From the NIEs to the BRICs: See the World in Your Own Eyes

2007-06-15T23:29:00.000+08:00

The Inaugural Lecture by Professor Edward Chen Kwan-Yiu was held today in Loke Yew Hall, the University of Hong Kong. This is the lecture organized by the former students of Professor Edward Chen to extend their gratitude to their respectable teacher.

The topic was “From the NIEs to the BRICs: Development Theory Revisited”. Professor Chen talked about his inaugural lecture as the chair professor of our faculty in HKU. At that time, the lecture was about the NIEs (Newly Industrializing Economies). It gave people the enlightenment that small, resources-scarce countries with open policies could develop quickly if in right conditions. Nowadays, the world seems to have been changing. The emergence of the BRICs (Brazil, Russia, India and China) seems to suggest the repeat of history: large, resources-abundant countries can survive and develop well when small, open economies might be vulnerable in the international financial integration.

However, in Professor Chen’s eyes, the world has not changed too much. The core conditions of development for these countries are the same. The active attitude towards openness is still the most important. The role of government is still kept its place while the western world holds the laissez-faire as a creed. The cultural values different from the Christianity are both held true for the Four Little Dragons and the BRICs.

The transition from the NIEs to the BRICs was along with development from the so-called “Hong Kong Consensus” suggested by Professor Chen to the “Beijing Consensus”. Both are quite different from the “Washington Consensus”. The repeated mention of the “positive non-interventionism” and the repeated criticism of the laissez-faire policies made people remember repeatedly the environment we were living. Why his theories and hypotheses are so well-received in Hong Kong and probably south-east Asia? He sees the world from his own eyes and speaks out. That’s very important.

What I mean by seeing the world from his own eyes is about the way he sees the world. When you see the world with your own eyes, you are making assumptions and determine those very important factors that you are going to consent to. The choice of assumptions and factors sometimes come from data, but your own personal philosophy might count, which also makes culture a very important factor in social science research. The well-reception of the positive non-interventionism probably might be easier in Asia than in western world. I think perhaps that’s why Professor Chen lists culture other than Christianity as a very important factor for both models.

Does Opportunity Cost Matters, or the Tolerance Limit of Opportunity Cost?

2007-06-11T18:59:00.000+08:00

The summer vacation is coming. Since our hall is undergoing a maintenance project this summer, half of the students have to move out of the hall, including those who have graduated or only applied to live for part of the summer. To give a more detailed picture, our hall has two buildings for undergraduates, the Old Wing and the New Wing. When the New Wing is under maintenance, all the students permitted to stay will have to move to the Old Wing. And this will be vice versa after one month.

Today, June 11 is initially the deadline for those students who are not permitted to stay in summer to move out. However, the college office (administration branch of our hall) announced the delay for the deadline just a few days ago. The reason is that some local graduates cannot move out on time.

This is quite a shock for mainland students. Most of the mainland students have left according to the instructions of the hall, even with very high opportunity cost. For example, I have to move to a guest room in another hall for a week which costs $200 per day. And some mainland students have to take trains and go back home with their luggage in a hurry.

Most mainland students believe that the local students should comply with the instructions announced by the college office because they have more resources and ways to meet those demands, i.e. they have lower opportunity cost. However, for most mainland students, they have not many choices. Probably, the implementation of the instructions will incur a higher opportunity cost. Why do the mainland students have to bear higher opportunity cost while those local students still insist to stay?

There is something to count: the tolerance limit of opportunity cost. Actually, mainland students have a much higher tolerance limit for opportunity cost. Generally speaking, they possess this quality for several reasons.

One important reason is that the very limited resources and choices raise the tolerance limit of opportunity cost. In this unfamiliar environment, they are frequently facing higher opportunity costs and gradually get used to the high opportunity cost. In the case of moving out of the hall, even if they can find a place to live which is quite cheap but is one week after the deadline, they will have no other choices but to pay a higher price for a place which can be moved in immediately after the deadline. However, for local students, they can go back home and put their luggage in their friends’ rooms. If these cases happen all the time, mainland students may regard it reasonable to pay a higher price.

I’d like to use one case this morning to end. One mainland student is scheduled to move into another room in our hall. However, the graduate originally living in this room did not show any signs to move out. She was sleep at 10:40 am and the room was in its original order. The mainland student was in a hurry because her flight is 7 pm. She couldn’t put any her luggage into the room.

Can You Keep up with China’s Stock Market?

2007-06-01T11:55:00.000+08:00

Just a week ago, Chinese officials were defending that the rise of stamp duties was a rumor. Just two days ago, the stamp duties were suddenly nearly tripled. This was followed by a vaporized 1,240 billion market value in the stock market or 6.5% market value. The next day, it dropped another 10% but rebounded miraculously. Even my instructor in Macroeconomics wrote a comment before the sudden rebound and has to update it. Can you keep up the pace with China’s Stock Market?

One editorial in FTChinese.com told you to “relax about China’s stock market”. It sounds interesting when you are facing the sudden drop and someone is shouting against the government’s honesty and the harsh policies facing them. However, there are some truths in it.

When I expressed my concern for the collapse of China’s stock market two weeks ago, a friend of mine pacified my with the assertion that the China’s whole economy would not be influenced too much even in the worst situation that the stock market collapse. This was the same assertion as the editorial.

China’s stock market is somewhat independent and has few relations with other markets. It is bad when outside regards it as a huge opportunity for investment. However, it is good news if the opportunity turns into a burden as it is out of control itself. The limited opportunity of investment goes along with the limited risk in it.

What’s more, the assertion that the market would turn sour is still not a certain one as the yesterday’s rebound gave many people a surprise. The most important thing now probably is to try to keep up with the update information of China’s stock market.

Do Not Overlook the Trade Union in China

2007-05-23T19:45:00.000+08:00

Recently, one piece of important news is overlooked by the western media. That is the visit to China of a delegation of leaders from a major US trade union, Change to Win. The relevant news can be found in many Chinese media, but not in western media.

The delegation was led by the president of Change to Win, Anna Burger at the invitation of All China Federation of Trade Unions and participated with some famous leaders of US trade unions such as James Hoffa, the son of famous Jimmy Hoffa. For a long period, the biggest trade union in the US, AFL-CIO does not commit the position of All China Federation of Trade Unions as a real trade union due to its affiliated position under the leadership of the China Communist Party. The visit of Change to Win, the second largest trade union in the US, was believed to create a new chapter of the relationship between the trade unions in China and the US.

The common ground between the trade unions probably lies in the concentrated force to help improving workers’ working and living standards. The news that All China Federation of Trade Unions organized the labor unions for some branches of Wal-mart Stores Inc. is one important catalyst for this visit. It seems to display the endeavor and strength of All China Federation of Trade Unions in helping the workers. However, there are underlying reasons.

Change to Win was founded in 2005 by 7 member unions which gave up the affiliated membership of AFL-CIO. They are International Brotherhood of Teamsters, Laborers' International Union of North America, Service Employees International Union, UNITE HERE, United Brotherhood of Carpenters and Joiners of America, United Farm Workers of America, and United Food and Commercial Workers International Union. To some extent, large proportion of their 6 million members is influenced by the globalization. As James Hoffa said, the establishment of trade unions in the foreign invested companies in China might help to adjust the balance of the competitiveness between Chinese labors and US workers. The stronger the trade union is, the higher wages they can probably negotiate with the employer.

The communication between All China Federation of Trade Unions and the western trade unions also has benefit to the side of China. All China Federation of Trade Unions is bound to find some ways to strengthen its power in the course of China’s development. Chinese government is making every effort to protect the benefit of its farmers. They believe that it is a good way to stabilize China’s economy. It is also true that a stronger trade union will help to stabilize China’s economy through providing better salaries for workers. The rationale behind it is that the higher income the workers (also the peasants) can get, the more likely they are going to consume. This will be the very solution China tries to find to the trade conflict between China and the US. If the internal supply can be promoted, the pressure for exports to support China’s economic growth will become less. This will finally reduce the business friction problem of China.

China’s Economy Is at a Critical Point

2007-05-14T02:28:00.000+08:00

News on China’s economy is always popular. In recent days, reports about China’s economy are catching eyes particularly. “China Regulator Urges Investor Awareness of Stock Market Risks”, “China's Inflation Probably Broke Central Bank Target”, “China Money Supply Rises 17.1%, Exceeding Target” and etc. (Headlines from Bloomberg.com) Those headlines are delivering the same message: China’s economy is at a critical point.

Then what is the clue for these problems? One bold guess is the unexpected inflation. It seems reasonable that since the inflation is 3.1% (an estimated number from Bloomberg. com), the negative real interest rate has forced citizens to give up saving at banks as a traditional way of investment and to turn to other financial assets, stocks in particular. In the first quarter this year, 8.58 million new accounts have been opened at brokerages. In contrast, the number for last whole year was only 5.38 million. And the investment of stocks also explains the breaking of the China’s money supply target partially. Many people even try to borrow money to buy stocks which increases the M1 greatly.

Where does the inflation come from? It may result from undervalued RMB. When RMB is undervalued, we can see great trade surplus and higher demand for RMB. To stable the exchange rate of RMB, China’s government purchases a lot US Treasury bond to create demand for US dollar artificially. This method may not give US economy a great impact as I mentioned in “A Brief Overview on RMB and the US Dollar” (May 8th), but it may have great side-effect on Chinese domestic market. One effect is mainly caused by the constant payment of Chinese Yuan, which may lead to the excess printing of RMB and cause an excess money supply. The ending of the circle is a higher inflation rate.

Whatever the reason is, it is a critical point of China’s economy. The flood of new shareholders is not from the elites or at least people with financial know-how. However, they are those who have little understanding of the risks of financial investment. The once popular saying, “there are risks in the stock market, and you should be careful when you enter it” does not prevent the irrational growth of shareholders. If the increase in stock investment could not be contained immediately, an economic bubble would be easily forming at a quick pace, especially for China, such a large and immature economy.

It is reasonable to predict that the government will try to tight its monetary policy (to raise the interest rate) seriously, as the former changes in policies do not work effectively.

A Brief Overview on RMB and the US Dollar

2007-05-08T03:04:00.000+08:00

The topic of China and the US is always hot and the relationship between China and the US is too complicated to be fully explained. There are always different views and arguments from different stances are just there to be picked up. You will never feel alone when you try to say some words about China and the US. Out of this reason, I would like to write some things about the relation between RMB and the US dollar.

A brief discussion on RMB and the US dollar would be started from 1994 when China adopted the policy to peg against the dollar at 8.28 yuan per dollar. At that time, China faced severe inflation (the inflation rate in 1994 was 24%). As a result, China took the policy of pegging against the dollar to stable the dollar prices for the goods they sold in the United States.

With the country’s ability to control the national economy increasing, China was gradually able to bring down the inflation rate at a very low level and keep the fast economic growth rate at an average of about 9%. The demand for RMB and the dollar began to change accordingly. By the early 2000s, many economists argued that the yuan was undervalued against the dollar, possibly significant so.

This point was well taken use of by those politicians in the US to explain the great trade deficit of the United States. The pressure on China’s currency to appreciate was since then became heavier. Any policies Chinese government used to keep RMB stable might be regarded as a violation of the common practice and was irresponsible for the international financial market. Is that true? Or more specifically, are those policies really hurt the United States that much?

If you are equipped with some macro-economic knowledge, you should able to establish the demand and supply model for RMB and the US. If the exchange rate between RMB and the dollars is significantly undervalued as argued, then the exchange rate should be well below the equilibrium exchange rate. This leads to a shortage between the supply and the demand for RMB. The shortage should pressure the Chinese yuan to appreciate until it gets to the equilibrium exchange rate. However, since Chinese yuan was pegged against the US dollar, Chinese government had to cover the shortage by selling RMB and purchasing US dollars. In reality, Chinese government chose to purchase large amounts of US Treasury bonds to keep the fixed exchange rate.

From the US perspective, since Chinese government purchased a lot of US Treasury bonds, the artificial exchange rate can be kept at 8.28 and thus the US dollar do not need to depreciate and the large demand for US Treasury produced by Chinese government helped to keep the US interest rate at a quite low level. As a result, the US did not need to pay large interest to keep stable of its exchange rate with other major currencies and this helped the US a lot to keep its economic growth. If the demand-supply shortage occurred for a developing country rather than the US, then probably the economy would fall into the vicious cycle of borrowing a lot of US dollars to keep the country’s foreign reserves and paying huge interests as a heavy burden.

The previous interpretation helps to articulate that the fixed exchange rate did not influence the US economy too much and since the dollar is the world currency, China compensated the US loss by purchasing its government treasury bonds. Then is there something wrong with the US trade sector as those politicians’ argument?

The US great trade deficit is a fact. No one is going to decline. However, it is not much to do with China. Although it seems that the US has a large trade deficit with China, the problem is that US has a large trade deficit with nearly all the countries and the proportion of that with China is not that large.

One way to explain the US trade deficit is the relationship between the government budget deficit and the current account which is greatly influenced by the balance of trade. To explain this relationship, we should have a look at the formula S = I + NFI, where S stands for savings, I stands for domestic investment and NFI stands for net foreign investment. In a closed economy, it is obvious that all the sources for investment are from the total savings of the country. A little different from the conclusion is that in an open economy, the savings of the whole country can invest in the domestic market and the international market as well. As a result, we get the formula S = I + NFI. If government tends to have a budget deficit, savings tend to be small. To boom the economy, the US needs a lot of domestic investment. Thus the NFI (net foreign investment) should be a negative number, which means that the US need the investment from other countries and its financial account should be positive. The zero-sum relation between the current account and the financial account then hints that the current account should be negative. That is to say the policy of holding budget deficit results in the large trade deficit. The US actually designs its development pattern itself!

There are other ways to explain why the US always has a large trade deficit. I would not explain all of them this time. But no matter how we explain the situation, Washington has the enough influence to press the counterpart in China to appreciate the Chinese yuan at least a little. China claimed, in 2005, to give up the policy of pegging against the dollar and to adopt the policy to link the value of the yuan to the average value of a basket of currencies that would include the dollar, the Japanese yen, the euro, the Korean won, and several other currencies.

The argument has not come to an end. Many US politicians are not satisfied the pace of appreciation of RMB, and they may push harder for a strong Chinese yuan. Is China able to stabilize its economy by change the value of its currency gradually? Maybe time can tell us everything.

Globalization and Neo-Marxist Theories

2007-05-02T18:20:00.000+08:00

This is the first time that I realize that I am touching some political theories to explain the economic world. Originally I had the perception that there are relations between politics and economics, but I could not put forward the exact example to prove my sense.

Born in the socialist state, I was taught with some Marxist theories to understand the economic world, especially from the angle of possession of materials; however, I did not realize that.

This time, the learning of neo-Marxist theories to explain the globalization in a capitalist society helped me to bridge the gap between politics and economics.

Neo-Marxists were active during 1960s and 1970s and their theories were marginalized with the demise of the former Soviet Union. It was the heat of globalization and its stagnancy in some parts of the world that brought those theories into light again.

In liberalists’ views that globalization is the panacea for the Global South. The lower the barriers for trade and finance integration, the better the Global South countries can develop in the long run. However, no matter how better those liberalists promote their theories, they could not ensure the short-run stability for those poor countries. If what they mean by “in the long run” is foreseeable in a decade, it would be more persuasive. Nevertheless, common people without professionally trained by advanced economics or brainwashed by the western values may cast doubt on this point when the international division, using natural resources or agricultural commodities in exchange of sophisticated manufactured goods. If this openness requires more preliminary loss of partial sovereignty, then the enthusiasm of change may be even lower. These analyses lead to a picture of a poorer future than even today for those economies at the bottom of the world.

As a result, the prescription is not favored by the authorities of those poor countries. They would like to use neo-Marxist theories to excuse themselves from globalization and from the vicious cycle, at least in the short term. Even the examples of fast developed Asian Tigers and China can not eliminate their fear to be the victim of neocolonialism. They coined “semiperiphery” to accommodate those leaders in the Global South and kept their attention mainly on the dependent development and the negative effect of national bourgeoisies or compradors. They may hope that the closure of the countries to the international intercourse may not affect too much as hundreds years back countries were generally independent without much intercourse. However, the world has changed with high outside pressure and little patience. Their path may not be an easy one.

Politically speaking, it is quite confused to say which way is right or at least is with rightness. The meaning of politics itself is the struggle for solving the conflicts. However, watch the issue from an economics view, maybe it is the problem of seeking the balance. If you can not ensure the long run fruit, just try to get those easier to pick up. That does not mean that those poor countries should give up and totally secluded from the global community. They should try to prepare for the openness gradually. In the sort term, they are safe and in the long run they can try to embrace the present situation. However, the treacherous assumption is that the international political system is not that violent.

The only conclusion I want to draw at the present point is:

Try to solve the problem peacefully by economics and to avoid fierce monsters in international politics.